Thu, Nov 16, 2023·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
New York Islanders 3, Seattle Kraken 4 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 16 | 110 | 15 | 02 | 2 | 323 |
| SEA | 216 | 06 | 110 | 00 | 3 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:46NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Bo Horvat, Brock Nelson · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 9:54SEAMatty BeniersPPAssists: Vince Dunn, Kailer Yamamoto · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 18:29SEAAlexander WennbergPPAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Jordan Eberle · Snap, 0.37 xG1–2
- P2 14:25NYICasey CizikasAssists: Mathew Barzal, Ryan Pulock · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 1:48NYINoah DobsonPPAssists: Mathew Barzal, Kyle Palmieri · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 4:50SEAKailer YamamotoPPAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Eeli Tolvanen · Backhand, 0.18 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. SEA Justin Schultz stopped
- 2. NYI Mathew Barzal stopped
- 3. SEA Matty Beniers stopped
- 4. NYI Bo Horvat scored
- 5. SEA Oliver Bjorkstrand scored
- 6. NYI Simon Holmstrom stopped
- 7. SEA Jared McCann stopped
- 8. NYI Kyle Palmieri stopped
- 9. SEA Alexander Wennberg stopped
- 10. NYI Brock Nelson stopped
- 11. SEA Jordan Eberle scored
- 12. NYI Oliver Wahlstrom scored
- 13. SEA Eeli Tolvanen stopped
- 14. NYI Jean-Gabriel Pageau stopped
- 15. SEA Kailer Yamamoto scored
- 16. NYI Noah Dobson stopped
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:24SEABrandon Tanev: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:53NYIScott Mayfield: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 16:35NYIScott Mayfield: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:30NYISebastian Aho: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:57SEAYanni Gourde: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:45SEAYanni Gourde: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:40SEAVince Dunn: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 3:16NYIAnders Lee: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 15:21SEAKailer Yamamoto: Hooking2 min
- OT 0:36NYIBrock Nelson: Holding2 min
- OT 0:36SEAMatty Beniers: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bellemare won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Cizikas – Fasching7:40
xG 0.45–0.12 (79%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Engvall11:00
xG 0.16–0.35 (31%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Horvat – Barzal – Holmstrom7:48
xG 0.10–0.35 (22%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Lee – Pageau – Wahlstrom8:11
xG 0.16–0.62 (20%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPulock – Romanov12:29
xG 0.45–0.19 (71%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Dobson – Romanov3:32
xG 0.03–0.02 (60%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Pelech – Dobson9:59
xG 0.39–0.46 (46%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – McCann – Beniers9:43
xG 0.81–0.07 (92%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen10:44
xG 0.39–0.17 (69%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Wennberg – Tanev5:55
xG 0.25–0.15 (63%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Bellemare – Yamamoto – Kartye5:06
xG 0.01–0.40 (3%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Dumoulin12:19
xG 0.60–0.17 (78%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Borgen12:06
xG 0.22–0.12 (65%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Larsson – Dunn12:28
xG 0.58–0.53 (52%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).