Thu, Nov 16, 2023·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Florida Panthers 1, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 08 | 010 | 113 | 131 |
| LAK | 19 | 19 | 09 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:20LAKKevin FialaAssists: Phillip Danault, Trevor Moore · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 13:53LAKAnze KopitarPPGWGAssists: Kevin Fiala, Drew Doughty · Slap, 0.19 xG0–2
- P3 11:45FLASam ReinhartAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Aleksander Barkov · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:35FLASam Reinhart: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:34LAKMatt Roy: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:09FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:09LAKAdrian Kempe: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:22LAKVladislav Gavrikov: Interference2 min
- P2 12:43FLAKevin Stenlund: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:36LAKArthur Kaliyev: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:27LAKDrew Doughty: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 8:05LAKKevin Fiala: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestRodrigues – Luostarinen – Lundell6:42
xG 0.49–0.22 (69%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart7:27
xG 0.28–0.11 (71%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Stenlund – Lorentz – Lomberg4:59
xG 0.04–0.15 (19%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk2:25
xG 0.01–0.18 (7%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Forsling – Balinskis4:09
xG 0.00–0.01 (36%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Mahura – Balinskis4:57
xG 0.02–0.16 (11%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Forsling13:05
xG 0.17–0.34 (34%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDubois – Anderson-Dolan – Kaliyev7:28
xG 0.48–0.24 (67%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Byfield10:20
xG 0.26–0.06 (82%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Danault – Fiala – Moore8:46
xG 0.50–0.41 (55%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Lewis – Grundstrom – Lizotte7:53
xG 0.10–0.09 (54%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Roy11:01
xG 0.57–0.24 (71%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Doughty – Anderson16:41
xG 0.53–0.24 (69%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Englund – Spence7:38
xG 0.14–0.01 (91%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).