Thu, Nov 16, 2023·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
St. Louis Blues 1, San Jose Sharks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 011 | 016 | 118 | 145 |
| SJS | 115 | 412 | 08 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:02SJSMike HoffmanAssists: Nico Sturm, Filip Zadina · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 0:17SJSWilliam EklundGWGAssists: Nikita Okhotiuk · Tip-in, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 2:39SJSGivani SmithAssists: Luke Kunin, Ryan Carpenter · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–3
- P2 3:25SJSLuke KuninAssists: Givani Smith, Ryan Carpenter · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–4
- P2 13:45SJSMike HoffmanAssists: Filip Zadina, Nikita Okhotiuk · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–5
- P3 13:55STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Justin Faulk, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:17SJSKyle Burroughs: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:24SJSMario Ferraro: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:23STLJakub Vrana: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:42SJSNico Sturm: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:59SJSMike Hoffman: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Kapanen – Thomas13:42
xG 1.25–0.39 (76%)attempts 26–12goals 1–1
- Sundqvist – Blais – Neighbours9:48
xG 0.59–0.48 (55%)attempts 16–8goals 0–2
- Hayes – Vrana – Toropchenko7:55
xG 0.15–0.63 (19%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
- Schenn – Saad – Kyrou12:04
xG 0.31–0.87 (26%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Krug15:56
xG 1.40–1.04 (57%)attempts 33–21goals 1–2
- Scandella – Perunovich9:43
xG 0.39–0.47 (46%)attempts 11–8goals 0–2
- Leddy – Parayko17:12
xG 0.45–0.84 (35%)attempts 12–17goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Zetterlund – Eklund11:10
xG 0.74–0.16 (82%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Carpenter – Kunin – Smith7:22
xG 0.84–0.49 (63%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
- Hoffman – Zadina – Sturm9:58
xG 0.48–0.69 (41%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Granlund – Duclair – Gushchin10:51
xG 0.17–0.54 (24%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurroughs – Okhotiuk16:50
xG 1.29–0.69 (65%)attempts 20–21goals 3–0
- Ferraro – Emberson13:45
xG 0.59–0.76 (44%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Rutta – Addison11:41
xG 0.44–0.69 (39%)attempts 9–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).