Fri, Nov 17, 2023·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Buffalo Sabres 2, Winnipeg Jets 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 06 | 110 | 112 | 228 |
| WPG | 07 | 35 | 06 | 318 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:12WPGCole PerfettiAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Neal Pionk · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 4:33WPGMason AppletonAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Adam Lowry · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 4:56BUFAlex TuchUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 8:12WPGNikolaj EhlersGWGAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Vladislav Namestnikov · Wrist, 0.00 xG1–3
- P3 1:00BUFJJ PeterkaAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Zach Benson · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:15WPGAdam Lowry: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:11BUFMattias Samuelsson: Holding2 min
- P2 6:04BUFJJ Peterka: Holding2 min
- P2 13:13BUFTyson Jost: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:57WPGNikolaj Ehlers: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:44BUFZach Benson: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Mittelstadt
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOlofsson – Greenway – Jost4:38
xG 0.47–0.02 (96%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Greenway – Krebs3:08
xG 0.60–0.16 (79%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Mittelstadt – Peterka – Benson9:49
xG 0.56–0.33 (63%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs5:34
xG 0.34–0.30 (53%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Dahlin17:01
xG 1.07–0.51 (68%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Johnson – Power11:53
xG 0.72–0.38 (65%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Clifton – Power2:06
xG 0.23–0.00 (99%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Lowry – Appleton9:49
xG 0.39–0.30 (56%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Jonsson-Fjallby – Barron – Gustafsson5:00
xG 0.25–0.23 (52%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Iafallo12:33
xG 0.26–0.73 (26%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Namestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti8:19
xG 0.26–0.84 (24%)attempts 5–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Dillon – Pionk14:13
xG 0.65–0.97 (40%)attempts 15–17goals 2–2
- DeMelo – Morrissey15:23
xG 0.23–0.62 (27%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Stanley – Samberg8:24
xG 0.10–1.13 (8%)attempts 3–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).