Sat, Nov 18, 2023·TD Garden, Boston
Montréal Canadiens 2, Boston Bruins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 08 | 18 | 16 | 222 |
| BOS | 218 | 215 | 111 | 544 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:11BOSCharlie McAvoyPPAssists: Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak · Slap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 19:20BOSTrent FredericAssists: Brandon Carlo, Charlie Coyle · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 5:18BOSPavel ZachaGWGAssists: Hampus Lindholm, David Pastrnak · Slap, 0.11 xG0–3
- P2 13:04MTLJuraj SlafkovskýAssists: Nick Suzuki, Alex Newhook · Snap, 0.24 xG1–3
- P2 15:30BOSTrent FredericAssists: Charlie Coyle, Jake DeBrusk · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–4
- P3 5:39BOSJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–5
- P3 15:29MTLJohnathan KovacevicAssists: Christian Dvorak, Juraj Slafkovský · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:29BOSHampus Lindholm: Holding2 min
- P1 6:11MTLJesse Ylonen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 6:24MTLJohnathan Kovacevic: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:24MTLJohnathan Kovacevic: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:24MTLJohnathan Kovacevic: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:24BOSJake DeBrusk: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:18BOSTrent Frederic: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:00MTLMichael Pezzetta: Interference2 min
- P3 5:05MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Beecher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDvorak – Ylonen – Slafkovský3:51
xG 0.40–0.14 (73%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Newhook12:47
xG 0.52–0.52 (50%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
- Gallagher – Anderson – Monahan5:24
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Pearson – Evans – Pezzetta7:39
xG 0.04–0.50 (7%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKovacevic – Harris2:52
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Lindstrom – Guhle2:01
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Kovacevic – Guhle10:51
xG 0.66–0.75 (47%)attempts 7–18goals 2–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHeinen – DeBrusk – Poitras8:46
xG 0.81–0.15 (84%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Marchand – Pastrnak – Zacha6:15
xG 0.71–0.20 (78%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Steen – Lauko – Beecher9:20
xG 0.33–0.08 (82%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Coyle – Frederic9:52
xG 0.22–0.24 (48%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Carlo12:52
xG 0.81–0.35 (70%)attempts 13–6goals 2–0
- McAvoy – Lohrei14:22
xG 0.93–0.70 (57%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
- Forbort – Carlo2:20
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).