Sat, Nov 18, 2023·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
New York Islanders 5, Calgary Flames 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 18 | 29 | 114 | 02 | 2 | 533 |
| CGY | 110 | 111 | 214 | 04 | 1 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:16CGYMartin PospisilAssists: Nazem Kadri, Connor Zary · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 16:52NYIHudson FaschingAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 4:07NYIKyle PalmieriPPAssists: Bo Horvat, Noah Dobson · Slap, 0.34 xG2–1
- P2 8:07NYIMathew BarzalUnassisted · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–1
- P2 17:03CGYBlake ColemanAssists: Nick DeSimone, Jonathan Huberdeau · Deflected, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 3:12CGYMacKenzie WeegarAssists: Connor Zary, Nazem Kadri · Slap, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 3:32NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Pierre Engvall, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–3
- P3 13:43CGYYegor SharangovichAssists: Noah Hanifin, Elias Lindholm · Tip-in, 0.08 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. CGY Yegor Sharangovich scored
- 2. NYI Bo Horvat scored
- 3. CGY Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
- 4. NYI Mathew Barzal stopped
- 5. CGY Rasmus Andersson stopped
- 6. NYI Kyle Palmieri stopped
- 7. CGY Connor Zary stopped
- 8. NYI Oliver Wahlstrom scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:25NYIPierre Engvall: Interference2 min
- P2 3:52CGYNazem Kadri: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:54NYIRyan Pulock: Holding2 min
- P2 8:01CGYJonathan Huberdeau: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:42NYIAdam Pelech: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:29CGYNoah Hanifin: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestHorvat – Barzal – Holmstrom10:50
xG 1.22–0.14 (90%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Engvall12:00
xG 0.70–0.50 (58%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Fasching8:51
xG 0.35–0.43 (44%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Lee – Pageau – Wahlstrom8:58
xG 0.35–0.67 (34%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Dobson15:43
xG 1.13–0.31 (79%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Dobson – Romanov2:52
xG 0.01–0.19 (7%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Aho13:29
xG 0.71–0.90 (44%)attempts 18–21goals 1–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Pospisil – Zary12:03
xG 0.76–0.13 (85%)attempts 17–4goals 2–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Huberdeau11:37
xG 1.02–0.80 (56%)attempts 20–12goals 1–1
- Lindholm – Mangiapane – Sharangovich2:01
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Mangiapane – Dube9:31
xG 0.25–0.37 (41%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hanifin16:59
xG 1.07–0.64 (63%)attempts 22–14goals 1–0
- Weegar – Andersson18:24
xG 0.67–0.45 (60%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
- Zadorov – DeSimone11:10
xG 0.49–1.60 (23%)attempts 12–18goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).