Sat, Nov 18, 2023·Capital One Arena, Washington
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Washington Capitals 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 09 | 111 | 216 | 336 |
| WSH | 07 | 310 | 19 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:27CBJJohnny GaudreauAssists: Boone Jenner, Damon Severson · Slap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 5:05WSHSonny MilanoAssists: Aliaksei Protas, Hendrix Lapierre · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 13:16WSHAliaksei ProtasAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk, Hendrix Lapierre · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 15:47WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Dylan Strome · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 7:01CBJIvan ProvorovAssists: Cole Sillinger · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 13:34WSHHendrix LapierreGWGAssists: Sonny Milano, Aliaksei Protas · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 15:48CBJJustin DanforthAssists: Sean Kuraly, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:06CBJPatrik Laine: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:15WSHNic Dowd: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:42CBJDamon Severson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:18CBJSean Kuraly: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:18WSHT.J. Oshie: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:01WSHSonny Milano: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 17:26WSHTrevor van Riemsdyk: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against McMichael
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Laine – Olivier6:11
xG 0.90–0.24 (79%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Laine – Olivier – Sillinger2:58
xG 0.54–0.10 (84%)attempts 3–2goals 1–1
- Jenner – Chinakhov – Sillinger8:50
xG 0.19–0.08 (69%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Marchenko – Voronkov – Fantilli8:47
xG 0.27–0.18 (59%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Provorov15:11
xG 1.31–0.40 (77%)attempts 24–9goals 1–1
- Bean – Jiricek8:15
xG 0.64–0.14 (82%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Werenski – Jiricek3:32
xG 0.42–0.15 (74%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestMilano – Protas – Lapierre8:35
xG 0.55–0.38 (59%)attempts 10–10goals 3–1
- Oshie – Mantha – McMichael7:38
xG 0.35–0.34 (51%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Wilson – Strome9:43
xG 0.28–0.63 (31%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Dowd – Aube-Kubel – Malenstyn13:52
xG 0.43–1.09 (29%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Edmundson6:27
xG 0.26–0.11 (70%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Edmundson – van Riemsdyk9:22
xG 0.31–0.23 (57%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Sandin5:38
xG 0.34–0.26 (57%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).