Sat, Nov 18, 2023·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Colorado Avalanche 6, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 07 | 216 | 415 | 638 |
| DAL | 27 | 115 | 06 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:33DALTyler SeguinAssists: Mason Marchment, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 14:21DALJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Jason Robertson · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 2:12DALTyler SeguinAssists: Mason Marchment, Esa Lindell · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–3
- P2 13:27COLMiles WoodAssists: Ross Colton, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–3
- P2 17:09COLRyan JohansenPPAssists: Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 4:19COLValeri NichushkinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–3
- P3 14:32COLMikko RantanenGWGAssists: Devon Toews, Valeri Nichushkin · Backhand, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 14:43COLAndrew CoglianoAssists: Joel Kiviranta, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–3
- P3 19:30COLRoss ColtonENAssists: Cale Makar · Snap, 0.43 xG6–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 14:01COLJonathan Drouin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:27COLLogan O'Connor: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:56DALRoope Hintz: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:26COLNathan MacKinnon: Holding2 min
- P2 8:30COLJoel Kiviranta: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 13:27DALMason Marchment: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 15:49DALRoope Hintz: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:25DALJamie Benn: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Olofsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen12:24
xG 1.16–0.42 (73%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
- Wood – Colton – O'Connor8:55
xG 0.77–0.38 (67%)attempts 10–5goals 1–1
- Cogliano – Olofsson – Kiviranta6:39
xG 0.14–0.11 (57%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Tatar – Johansen – Drouin5:38
xG 0.09–0.60 (13%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar12:10
xG 1.04–0.43 (71%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Toews – Girard3:24
xG 0.49–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 2–0
- Johnson – Jones8:55
xG 0.69–0.53 (56%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Dadonov – Johnston8:16
xG 0.75–0.28 (73%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- Duchene – Seguin – Marchment10:30
xG 0.63–0.35 (64%)attempts 12–6goals 2–1
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson9:57
xG 0.19–0.74 (20%)attempts 3–14goals 0–1
- Smith – Faksa – Steel7:39
xG 0.05–0.71 (6%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hakanpää – Lindell12:59
xG 0.67–0.69 (49%)attempts 12–17goals 1–1
- Hanley – Lundkvist11:35
xG 0.35–0.67 (34%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- Suter – Heiskanen18:03
xG 0.68–1.58 (30%)attempts 11–23goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).