Sat, Nov 18, 2023·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Seattle Kraken 4, Vancouver Canucks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 09 | 28 | 29 | 426 |
| VAN | 18 | 18 | 18 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:34VANJ.T. MillerAssists: Tyler Myers, Phillip Di Giuseppe · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 5:43SEAJamie OleksiakAssists: Matty Beniers, Jordan Eberle · Slap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 13:04SEAJordan EberleAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 15:48VANQuinn HughesAssists: Filip Hronek, Elias Pettersson · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 4:19SEAYanni GourdeAssists: Will Borgen, Eeli Tolvanen · Tip-in, 0.24 xG3–2
- P3 6:48SEAMatty BeniersGWGAssists: Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–2
- P3 19:49VANNils HoglanderAssists: Tyler Myers, Ilya Mikheyev · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:25VANNoah Juulsen: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:03VANTeddy Blueger: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:17VANJ.T. Miller: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:38SEAKailer Yamamoto: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:54SEATye Kartye: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Blueger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Wennberg – Tanev8:43
xG 0.36–0.17 (68%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Bellemare – Yamamoto – Kartye6:01
xG 0.21–0.04 (85%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen11:46
xG 0.46–0.35 (57%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers9:40
xG 0.36–0.35 (51%)attempts 12–9goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Borgen11:38
xG 0.55–0.06 (90%)attempts 11–4goals 2–1
- Dunn – Borgen2:05
xG 0.16–0.01 (95%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Schultz – Dumoulin13:01
xG 0.45–0.37 (55%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestLafferty – Beauvillier – Hoglander5:39
xG 0.43–0.29 (60%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Miller – Di Giuseppe – Boeser9:23
xG 0.46–0.41 (52%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Blueger – Joshua – Garland8:42
xG 0.23–0.19 (54%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Mikheyev – Kuzmenko8:40
xG 0.08–0.32 (21%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Myers2:41
xG 0.27–0.10 (73%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Cole – Juulsen9:19
xG 0.26–0.12 (69%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Myers – Hirose10:22
xG 0.23–0.17 (58%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).