Sun, Nov 19, 2023·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 19 | 17 | 06 | 222 |
| PHI | 112 | 211 | 24 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:11PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Ryan Poehling, Cam York · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 15:02CBJAlexandre TexierAssists: Sean Kuraly, Mathieu Olivier · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 1:11PHIBobby BrinkPPAssists: Sean Walker, Joel Farabee · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 6:41PHIRyan PoehlingSHGWGAssists: Garnet Hathaway, Sean Walker · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–3
- P2 17:57CBJBoone JennerAssists: Ivan Provorov · Deflected, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 12:40PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Louie Belpedio · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 17:34PHICam YorkENAssists: Ryan Poehling · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 10:20CBJEgor Chinakhov: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:59CBJMathieu Olivier: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 16:59PHINicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:05CBJKirill Marchenko: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:08PHINicolas Deslauriers: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:04CBJMathieu Olivier: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:04CBJMathieu Olivier: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:04PHINicolas Deslauriers: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:02PHITyson Foerster: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 4:01PHISean Walker: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:52PHIBobby Brink: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:27CBJCole Sillinger: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:53PHITravis Sanheim: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestKuraly – Olivier – Texier7:17
xG 0.51–0.16 (77%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Danforth11:54
xG 0.61–0.44 (58%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Chinakhov – Sillinger2:19
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Marchenko – Voronkov – Fantilli8:23
xG 0.11–0.52 (17%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Provorov – Jiricek6:24
xG 0.18–0.13 (58%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Werenski – Boqvist9:10
xG 0.51–0.46 (52%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Werenski – Jiricek2:03
xG 0.02–0.08 (22%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestPoehling – Farabee – Brink7:22
xG 0.57–0.18 (76%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Couturier – Konecny – Foerster10:51
xG 0.48–0.22 (69%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Atkinson – Laughton – Tippett8:13
xG 0.40–0.32 (55%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Deslauriers – Hathaway – Cates6:04
xG 0.01–0.24 (2%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Walker11:38
xG 0.55–0.42 (56%)attempts 17–15goals 0–1
- Sanheim – York14:36
xG 0.59–0.58 (50%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Belpedio – Zamula12:48
xG 0.36–0.57 (39%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).