Sun, Nov 19, 2023·Honda Center, Anaheim
St. Louis Blues 3, Anaheim Ducks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 214 | 113 | 05 | 332 |
| ANA | 013 | 110 | 08 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:25STLJake NeighboursAssists: Oskar Sundqvist · Slap, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 16:34STLPavel BuchnevichPPGWGAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Scott Perunovich · Snap, 0.30 xG2–0
- P2 5:39STLAlexey ToropchenkoAssists: Justin Faulk, Kevin Hayes · Snap, 0.26 xG3–0
- P2 8:47ANAMason McTavishAssists: Alex Killorn, Max Jones · Backhand, 0.21 xG3–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:13ANAMason McTavish: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 16:21ANAPavel Mintyukov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 16:52STLJakub Vrana: Interference2 min
- P1 18:11STLKasperi Kapanen: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:23ANACam Fowler: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:14ANAPavel Mintyukov: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:49ANAAdam Henrique: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas12:53
xG 0.96–0.50 (66%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Hayes – Kapanen – Toropchenko10:06
xG 0.46–0.24 (65%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Alexandrov – Neighbours3:09
xG 0.31–0.14 (69%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
- Schenn – Saad – Sundqvist2:30
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Parayko16:34
xG 0.95–0.45 (68%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Scandella – Perunovich6:37
xG 0.11–0.18 (39%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Faulk – Krug16:08
xG 0.81–0.93 (47%)attempts 13–16goals 1–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Vatrano – Carlsson12:19
xG 0.76–0.65 (54%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Terry7:56
xG 0.14–0.14 (49%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Killorn – Jones – McTavish11:38
xG 0.52–0.52 (50%)attempts 7–13goals 1–1
- Carrick – Groulx – Leason5:31
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Vaakanainen12:01
xG 0.45–0.37 (55%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Fowler – LaCombe14:36
xG 0.56–0.61 (47%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Lyubushkin – Mintyukov12:08
xG 0.61–0.70 (47%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).