Mon, Nov 20, 2023·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Calgary Flames 4, Seattle Kraken 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 27 | 06 | 116 | 12 | 431 |
| SEA | 110 | 217 | 03 | 01 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:16CGYElias LindholmAssists: Rasmus Andersson, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 8:42SEAVince DunnAssists: Alexander Wennberg · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 11:40CGYJonathan HuberdeauPPAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 8:21SEAJordan EberleAssists: Vince Dunn, Yanni Gourde · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 10:25SEAJared McCannAssists: Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–3
- P3 15:53CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Noah Hanifin, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.28 xG3–3
- OT 3:28CGYRasmus AnderssonGWGAssists: Mikael Backlund, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 11:31SEAPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:59CGYNikita Zadorov: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:41CGYNikita Zadorov: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:40SEAYanni Gourde: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Pospisil – Zary8:03
xG 0.37–0.19 (66%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Greer – Dube – Duehr4:13
xG 0.05–0.10 (31%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Mangiapane – Greer2:55
xG 0.03–0.09 (24%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Kadri – Dube – Pospisil4:30
xG 0.13–0.31 (30%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZadorov – DeSimone12:48
xG 0.63–0.56 (53%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Tanev – Hanifin17:33
xG 0.81–0.76 (51%)attempts 12–22goals 1–2
- Weegar – Andersson17:49
xG 0.38–0.84 (31%)attempts 17–21goals 1–1
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – McCann – Beniers10:12
xG 0.31–0.02 (93%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen11:09
xG 0.49–0.51 (49%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
- Bellemare – Yamamoto – Kartye6:45
xG 0.15–0.23 (40%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Wennberg – Tanev10:22
xG 0.16–0.81 (17%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn17:19
xG 1.16–0.67 (63%)attempts 22–18goals 3–2
- Oleksiak – Borgen17:11
xG 0.72–0.47 (61%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Schultz – Dumoulin13:05
xG 0.64–0.53 (55%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).