Wed, Nov 22, 2023·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Boston Bruins 3, Florida Panthers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 112 | 27 | 06 | 325 |
| FLA | 015 | 17 | 06 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:35BOSCharlie CoyleAssists: Danton Heinen, Hampus Lindholm · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 10:33FLAAnton LundellAssists: Nick Cousins, Niko Mikkola · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 11:14BOSJohn BeecherGWGAssists: Jakub Lauko, Patrick Brown · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 14:19BOSJake DeBruskAssists: Matthew Poitras · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:20FLANick Cousins: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 6:20BOSCharlie McAvoy: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 9:07BOSKevin Shattenkirk: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:23BOSMason Lohrei: Holding2 min
- P1 17:41FLAGustav Forsling: Holding2 min
- P1 18:16BOSDavid Pastrnak: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:01FLAAnton Lundell: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:16FLAJonah Gadjovich: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:16BOSDerek Forbort: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:58FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zacha won the faceoff against Lundell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Lauko – Beecher5:45
xG 0.31–0.08 (79%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Marchand – Pastrnak – Zacha8:48
xG 0.15–0.26 (37%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Heinen – DeBrusk – Poitras7:03
xG 0.30–0.49 (38%)attempts 5–8goals 1–1
- van Riemsdyk – Coyle – Frederic5:42
xG 0.13–0.34 (28%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Carlo8:52
xG 0.40–0.08 (84%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Lindholm – McAvoy5:36
xG 0.25–0.05 (82%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Forbort – Carlo5:00
xG 0.29–0.12 (71%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Rodrigues – Stenlund9:22
xG 0.23–0.07 (78%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk11:44
xG 0.51–0.45 (53%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Lorentz – Lomberg – Gadjovich5:32
xG 0.10–0.22 (31%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Reinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell8:24
xG 0.23–0.79 (23%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Mikkola12:51
xG 0.85–0.60 (59%)attempts 21–11goals 1–0
- Ekblad – Forsling13:04
xG 0.32–0.42 (43%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Kulikov9:34
xG 0.34–0.61 (36%)attempts 8–11goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).