Wed, Nov 22, 2023·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Calgary Flames 2, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 113 | 04 | 19 | 226 |
| NSH | 216 | 014 | 215 | 445 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:33NSHColton SissonsSHAssists: Roman Josi, Cole Smith · Slap, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 4:46CGYNoah HanifinAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 11:23NSHRyan O'ReillyAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–2
- P3 11:56NSHAlexandre CarrierGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 17:22NSHJuuso ParssinenPPAssists: Philip Tomasino, Ryan McDonagh · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–4
- P3 19:15CGYYegor SharangovichSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 1:38NSHSpencer Stastney: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 6:21CGYMartin Pospisil: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:05NSHMichael McCarron: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:05CGYDennis Gilbert: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:28NSHJeremy Lauzon: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:28NSHJeremy Lauzon: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:28CGYNikita Zadorov: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:37CGYBlake Coleman: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:03NSHAlexandre Carrier: Holding2 min
- P3 11:56CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 12:35NSHFilip Forsberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:36CGYBlake Coleman: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 18:21CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Holding2 min
- P3 18:21CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Penalty shot throwing object at puck0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Kadri – Dube – Pospisil9:44
xG 0.81–0.76 (51%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Huberdeau8:29
xG 0.20–0.34 (37%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Greer – Ruzicka – Duehr4:01
xG 0.00–0.29 (1%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Mangiapane – Sharangovich9:42
xG 0.33–0.64 (34%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestZadorov – Gilbert9:19
xG 0.85–0.26 (76%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Weegar – Zadorov2:14
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Tanev – Hanifin12:00
xG 0.40–0.71 (36%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg9:48
xG 0.79–0.13 (85%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Smith2:43
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- McCarron – Tomasino – Smith4:17
xG 0.31–0.14 (68%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Foudy6:07
xG 0.07–0.19 (26%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Josi12:39
xG 1.56–0.00 (100%)attempts 23–4goals 1–0
- Barrie – Stastney10:42
xG 0.58–0.60 (49%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Lauzon – Carrier10:00
xG 0.16–0.86 (16%)attempts 8–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).