Wed, Nov 22, 2023·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Dallas Stars 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 18 | 06 | 011 | 11 | 226 |
| DAL | 06 | 117 | 07 | 02 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:26VGKMichael AmadioPPAssists: Nicolas Roy, Chandler Stephenson · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 19:17DALRoope HintzAssists: Joe Pavelski, Jason Robertson · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- OT 1:57VGKJack EichelGWGAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Adin Hill · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:52DALJani Hakanpää: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:20VGKNicolas Hague: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:52DALNils Lundkvist: Interference2 min
- P3 1:59VGKKeegan Kolesar: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:37DALJani Hakanpää: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:10VGKJack Eichel: Interference2 min
- P3 10:50DALNils Lundkvist: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Dellandrea
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Amadio – Cotter8:31
xG 0.61–0.31 (66%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Carrier – Kolesar – Roy7:17
xG 0.11–0.18 (38%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Marchessault – Barbashev – Eichel9:49
xG 0.46–1.03 (31%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Stone – Stephenson – Howden10:18
xG 0.14–0.71 (16%)attempts 5–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore15:13
xG 0.90–0.38 (70%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
- Hutton – Whitecloud8:08
xG 0.10–0.17 (37%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Hutton – Theodore2:06
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Benn – Hintz5:27
xG 1.24–0.13 (91%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Robertson – Johnston6:40
xG 0.45–0.02 (96%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson5:33
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Faksa – Steel – Dellandrea6:11
xG 0.07–0.10 (41%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHakanpää – Lindell10:30
xG 1.09–0.18 (86%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Lundkvist – Harley9:36
xG 0.47–0.07 (88%)attempts 16–2goals 0–0
- Suter – Heiskanen15:28
xG 0.60–0.34 (64%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).