Wed, Nov 22, 2023·Honda Center, Anaheim
Montréal Canadiens 4, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 215 | 17 | 16 | 428 |
| ANA | 012 | 211 | 110 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:59MTLAlex NewhookAssists: Tanner Pearson, Brendan Gallagher · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 6:37MTLKaiden GuhleAssists: Jesse Ylonen, Jake Evans · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 0:53ANAMason McTavishPPAssists: Leo Carlsson, Pavel Mintyukov · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 1:49MTLMike MathesonAssists: Nick Suzuki, Justin Barron · Snap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 6:00ANAMason McTavishAssists: Frank Vatrano, Tristan Luneau · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 11:31ANAFrank VatranoAssists: Mason McTavish, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 16:40MTLAlex NewhookGWGAssists: Jake Evans · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:53ANAIlya Lyubushkin: Playing without a helmet2 min
- P1 11:08ANAMason McTavish: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:48MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:34ANAMax Jones: Elbowing2 min
- P3 15:10ANAMax Jones: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 15:10MTLSean Monahan: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Suzuki – Newhook11:35
xG 0.75–0.19 (80%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Dvorak – Caufield – Slafkovský9:40
xG 0.36–0.36 (50%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Anderson – Suzuki – Newhook2:12
xG 0.06–0.09 (42%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Evans – Pezzetta – Ylonen5:21
xG 0.16–0.23 (41%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKovacevic – Struble2:30
xG 0.21–0.01 (97%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Lindstrom – Struble7:47
xG 0.27–0.15 (64%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Matheson – Barron15:44
xG 0.80–0.93 (46%)attempts 12–22goals 1–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Terry – Carlsson11:13
xG 0.51–0.13 (79%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Jones12:03
xG 0.82–0.56 (59%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Strome – Vatrano – McTavish11:15
xG 0.84–0.60 (58%)attempts 15–10goals 2–2
- Carrick – Johnston – Leason5:51
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Vaakanainen13:07
xG 0.52–0.12 (81%)attempts 18–8goals 0–1
- Fowler – Luneau14:31
xG 0.96–0.58 (62%)attempts 21–10goals 2–1
- Fowler – Lyubushkin2:00
xG 0.15–0.10 (60%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).