Wed, Nov 22, 2023·Ball Arena, Denver
Vancouver Canucks 2, Colorado Avalanche 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 111 | 111 | 07 | 229 |
| COL | 213 | 07 | 35 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:23VANNils HoglanderAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Sam Lafferty · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–0
- P1 17:37COLValeri NichushkinPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–1
- P1 18:43COLJonathan DrouinAssists: Cale Makar, Bowen Byram · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 9:04VANJ.T. MillerAssists: Quinn Hughes, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 1:24COLRiley TufteGWGAssists: Miles Wood, Ross Colton · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 12:38COLCale MakarUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 16:38COLMikko RantanenENAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.71 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 13:29VANIan Cole: Interference2 min
- P1 17:01VANConor Garland: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:25COLMikko Rantanen: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:09COLBowen Byram: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:39COLValeri Nichushkin: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:33VANBrock Boeser: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:33COLJosh Manson: Cross checking5 min
- P2 8:33COLJosh Manson: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 10:25VANAnthony Beauvillier: Interference2 min
- P2 11:42VANTyler Myers: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Olofsson won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBlueger – Joshua – Garland7:14
xG 0.61–0.04 (94%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Lafferty – Beauvillier – Hoglander3:14
xG 0.50–0.11 (82%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Pettersson – Mikheyev – Kuzmenko6:55
xG 0.41–0.29 (59%)attempts 9–6goals 0–2
- Miller – Di Giuseppe – Boeser3:33
xG 0.08–0.08 (51%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Juulsen9:48
xG 0.70–0.24 (74%)attempts 14–6goals 0–2
- Hronek – Hughes15:41
xG 0.33–0.31 (52%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Myers – Hronek2:35
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen10:42
xG 0.39–0.20 (66%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Tatar – Johansen – Drouin7:22
xG 0.19–0.05 (79%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Cogliano – Olofsson – Kiviranta8:40
xG 0.28–0.51 (35%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Wood – Tufte – Colton6:35
xG 0.15–0.77 (16%)attempts 2–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMakar – Byram2:58
xG 0.48–0.05 (90%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Toews – Makar9:43
xG 0.26–0.05 (83%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Johnson – Byram2:07
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).