Fri, Nov 24, 2023·United Center, Chicago
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Chicago Blackhawks 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 115 | 29 | 09 | 04 | 337 |
| CHI | 16 | 19 | 113 | 16 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:14TORNick RobertsonAssists: Max Domi, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 8:03CHIJason DickinsonAssists: Joey Anderson · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 1:17TORCalle JarnkrokAssists: TJ Brodie, Max Domi · Tip-in, 0.25 xG2–1
- P2 3:31TORRyan ReavesAssists: Jake McCabe, David Kampf · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–1
- P2 12:27CHIJason DickinsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–2
- P3 0:15CHIJason DickinsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
- OT 4:30CHIKevin KorchinskiGWGAssists: Connor Bedard, Philipp Kurashev · Backhand, 0.17 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:46TORMark Giordano: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:50CHISeth Jones: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:42TORMatthew Knies: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 0:22CHITyler Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:47TORRyan Reaves: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:47CHISeth Jones: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:47CHIReese Johnson: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:47TORWilliam Lagesson: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:35TORNoah Gregor: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dickinson won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Bertuzzi – Nylander11:18
xG 1.29–0.36 (78%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Domi – Robertson5:59
xG 0.78–0.03 (96%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Reaves – Gregor – Kampf6:39
xG 0.60–0.41 (59%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Marner – Matthews – Knies9:32
xG 0.32–0.53 (38%)attempts 7–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – McCabe15:06
xG 1.84–0.43 (81%)attempts 29–10goals 2–1
- Brodie – Rielly15:59
xG 0.94–0.45 (67%)attempts 11–21goals 0–0
- Lagesson – Timmins10:33
xG 0.29–0.72 (29%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Dickinson – Anderson10:22
xG 0.67–0.00 (100%)attempts 14–3goals 3–0
- Donato – Katchouk – Johnson8:51
xG 0.12–0.55 (18%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Kurashev – Reichel – Bedard11:11
xG 0.18–1.18 (13%)attempts 7–18goals 0–2
- Johnson – Raddysh – Guttman11:18
xG 0.29–1.34 (18%)attempts 10–21goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Vlasic3:19
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Jones – Korchinski3:48
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Jones – Vlasic16:08
xG 0.53–0.74 (41%)attempts 14–12goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).