Fri, Nov 24, 2023·Capital One Arena, Washington
Edmonton Oilers 5, Washington Capitals 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 221 | 39 | 05 | 535 |
| WSH | 06 | 011 | 08 | 025 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:10EDMEvander KaneGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Vincent Desharnais · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 15:24EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman · Bat, 0.22 xG2–0
- P2 3:44EDMEvan BouchardPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Slap, 0.05 xG3–0
- P2 4:48EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.27 xG4–0
- P2 18:37EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Zach Hyman, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–0
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:00WSHAlex Ovechkin: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:31EDMWarren Foegele: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:37WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 3:44WSHJohn Carlson: Abuse of officials2 min · PPG
- P2 12:36EDMWarren Foegele: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:36EDMBrett Kulak: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:51WSHNic Dowd: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 5:20EDMMattias Ekholm: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:09EDMConnor Brown: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid10:47
xG 0.79–0.08 (91%)attempts 17–4goals 1–0
- Kane – Brown – Draisaitl10:35
xG 0.44–0.35 (56%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Foegele – Ryan – McLeod8:06
xG 0.40–0.56 (42%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Janmark – Erne – Hamblin5:59
xG 0.01–0.25 (3%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Desharnais13:49
xG 1.43–0.20 (88%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Bouchard12:19
xG 0.65–0.68 (49%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Ceci – Nurse14:59
xG 0.24–0.30 (44%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Wilson – Strome4:12
xG 0.35–0.07 (84%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Aube-Kubel2:37
xG 0.13–0.01 (95%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Mantha – McMichael – Protas3:18
xG 0.30–0.23 (57%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Wilson – Strome – Protas2:26
xG 0.14–0.13 (53%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Sandin10:54
xG 0.40–0.31 (56%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Jensen – Alexeyev2:17
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Carlson – Edmundson2:05
xG 0.03–0.05 (37%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).