Fri, Nov 24, 2023·Honda Center, Anaheim
Los Angeles Kings 5, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 213 | 213 | 15 | 531 |
| ANA | 011 | 18 | 112 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:25LAKKevin FialaPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 12:26LAKArthur KaliyevPPAssists: Jordan Spence, Trevor Moore · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 1:17LAKQuinton ByfieldGWGAssists: Vladislav Gavrikov, Adrian Kempe · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–0
- P2 2:56LAKKevin FialaAssists: Phillip Danault, Trevor Moore · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–0
- P2 12:42ANARadko GudasAssists: Frank Vatrano, Ryan Strome · Slap, 0.02 xG4–1
- P3 3:21LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Adrian Kempe, Drew Doughty · Slap, 0.08 xG5–1
- P3 11:24ANAAlex KillornPPAssists: Mason McTavish, Troy Terry · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–2
Penalties (15)
- P1 6:44LAKKevin Fiala: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:13ANARyan Strome: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 11:20ANARadko Gudas: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 3:32ANASam Carrick: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:32LAKAndreas Englund: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:37ANAFrank Vatrano: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:37LAKPierre-Luc Dubois: Interference2 min
- P2 4:37LAKMikey Anderson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:37ANAFrank Vatrano: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:37ANAMason McTavish: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:37LAKDrew Doughty: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:49ANAMason McTavish: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 2:42ANARadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:42LAKAndreas Englund: Holding2 min
- P3 11:10LAKTrevor Lewis: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carrick won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Kempe – Byfield10:11
xG 0.67–0.21 (76%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Danault – Fiala – Moore11:24
xG 0.48–0.36 (57%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Lewis – Anderson-Dolan – Kaliyev9:51
xG 0.33–0.26 (55%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Grundstrom – Dubois – Laferriere10:57
xG 0.69–0.75 (48%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Roy16:04
xG 0.98–0.49 (67%)attempts 19–16goals 1–1
- Doughty – Anderson15:59
xG 0.55–0.32 (63%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Englund – Spence11:33
xG 0.60–0.47 (56%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Terry – Carlsson12:33
xG 0.50–0.17 (74%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Carrick – McGinn – Groulx6:05
xG 0.12–0.26 (31%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Jones10:01
xG 0.15–0.44 (25%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Strome – Vatrano – McTavish12:29
xG 0.68–1.27 (35%)attempts 17–19goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Lyubushkin – Mintyukov13:11
xG 0.37–0.48 (43%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Fowler – LaCombe13:55
xG 0.53–0.74 (42%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
- Gudas – Vaakanainen16:57
xG 0.48–0.96 (33%)attempts 19–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).