Fri, Nov 24, 2023·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Montréal Canadiens 3, San Jose Sharks 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 09 | 19 | 14 | 02 | 2 | 324 |
| SJS | 012 | 211 | 07 | 03 | 1 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:06SJSMike HoffmanAssists: William Eklund, Tomas Hertl · Snap, 0.31 xG0–1
- P2 12:30SJSWilliam EklundPPAssists: Calen Addison, Tomas Hertl · Slap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 18:02MTLJohnathan KovacevicAssists: Jayden Struble, Cole Caufield · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 3:26MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, Cayden Primeau · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. SJS William Eklund scored
- 2. MTL Nick Suzuki scored
- 3. SJS Fabian Zetterlund stopped
- 4. MTL Cole Caufield stopped
- 5. SJS Mike Hoffman stopped
- 6. MTL Juraj Slafkovský stopped
- 7. SJS Mikael Granlund stopped
- 8. MTL Christian Dvorak stopped
- 9. SJS Tomas Hertl stopped
- 10. MTL Sean Monahan stopped
- 11. SJS Anthony Duclair stopped
- 12. MTL Jesse Ylonen scored
Penalties (4)
- P1 12:34SJSMike Hoffman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 16:29MTLMike Matheson: Holding2 min
- P2 12:26MTLJustin Barron: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:12SJSMario Ferraro: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDvorak – Caufield – Slafkovský14:19
xG 0.87–0.64 (58%)attempts 23–13goals 2–0
- Gallagher – Suzuki – Newhook13:32
xG 0.31–0.15 (67%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Evans – Pezzetta – Ylonen4:51
xG 0.17–0.12 (58%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Pearson – Anderson – Monahan9:02
xG 0.15–0.51 (23%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Barron19:10
xG 0.50–0.35 (59%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Kovacevic – Struble10:47
xG 0.53–0.70 (43%)attempts 14–11goals 2–0
- Lindstrom – Guhle18:18
xG 0.34–0.72 (32%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Kunin – Sturm3:49
xG 0.47–0.35 (58%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Hertl – Eklund10:40
xG 0.57–0.46 (55%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Granlund – Duclair – Zetterlund12:10
xG 0.25–0.21 (54%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Hertl – Zadina – Eklund2:30
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenning – Addison8:29
xG 0.58–0.04 (93%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Ferraro – Emberson14:17
xG 0.48–0.39 (55%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Benning – Ferraro2:12
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).