Fri, Nov 24, 2023·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
New York Islanders 5, Ottawa Senators 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 112 | 39 | 15 | 526 |
| OTT | 110 | 211 | 010 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:25OTTDrake BathersonPPAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Josh Norris · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 13:55NYIKyle PalmieriAssists: Brock Nelson, Alexander Romanov · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 6:22NYIOliver WahlstromAssists: Alexander Romanov, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 9:51NYIMathew BarzalPPAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 9:57NYIAnders LeeGWGAssists: Oliver Wahlstrom · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–1
- P2 10:56OTTTim StützleAssists: Mathieu Joseph · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–2
- P2 11:43OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Tim Stützle, Mathieu Joseph · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–3
- P3 5:18NYISimon HolmstromAssists: Noah Dobson, Scott Mayfield · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 9:37NYIRyan Pulock: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:50NYIBo Horvat: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:22OTTParker Kelly: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:47NYIMathew Barzal: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Chartier won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Pageau – Wahlstrom8:44
xG 1.23–0.08 (94%)attempts 16–7goals 2–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Engvall10:53
xG 0.97–0.57 (63%)attempts 11–23goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Fasching10:06
xG 0.01–0.26 (5%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
- Horvat – Barzal – Holmstrom11:18
xG 0.33–0.62 (35%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPulock – Romanov21:39
xG 1.28–0.54 (70%)attempts 18–30goals 3–1
- Mayfield – Dobson20:06
xG 1.25–0.61 (67%)attempts 22–25goals 1–1
- Dobson – Romanov3:10
xG 0.06–0.00 (99%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNorris – Batherson – Tkachuk3:51
xG 0.10–0.02 (80%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Chartier – Highmore – Kelly6:08
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Giroux – Joseph – Stützle13:29
xG 0.33–0.39 (46%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- Kubalik – Batherson – Jarventie4:52
xG 0.18–0.26 (41%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub16:28
xG 0.96–0.63 (61%)attempts 21–9goals 1–1
- Hamonic – Brannstrom15:03
xG 0.55–0.39 (59%)attempts 24–13goals 1–1
- Chychrun – Bernard-Docker13:54
xG 0.21–0.74 (22%)attempts 16–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).