Fri, Nov 24, 2023·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Calgary Flames 7, Dallas Stars 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 17 | 212 | 48 | 727 |
| DAL | 211 | 26 | 011 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:13DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Jamie Benn, Evgenii Dadonov · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 8:19CGYA.J. GreerAssists: Dillon Dube, Adam Ruzicka · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 11:27DALJason RobertsonAssists: Nils Lundkvist · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 0:43CGYYegor SharangovichAssists: Elias Lindholm, Andrew Mangiapane · Snap, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 4:44DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Jamie Benn, Evgenii Dadonov · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 8:53DALJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Matt Duchene, Jason Robertson · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–4
- P2 13:27CGYAdam RuzickaAssists: Chris Tanev, A.J. Greer · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 1:53CGYBlake ColemanAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Rasmus Andersson · Backhand, 0.14 xG4–4
- P3 2:22CGYElias LindholmGWGAssists: Yegor Sharangovich, Andrew Mangiapane · Snap, 0.19 xG5–4
- P3 7:28CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Connor Zary, Blake Coleman · Snap, 0.25 xG6–4
- P3 18:21CGYNazem KadriENAssists: Yegor Sharangovich · Wrist, 0.69 xG7–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:44CGYRasmus Andersson: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:34CGYMikael Backlund: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:32DALSam Steel: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:24CGYA.J. Greer: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:40DALJamie Benn: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:01DALJani Hakanpää: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLindholm – Mangiapane – Sharangovich10:16
xG 0.66–0.12 (85%)attempts 9–4goals 2–1
- Greer – Dube – Ruzicka8:42
xG 0.48–0.57 (46%)attempts 6–8goals 2–0
- Kadri – Pospisil – Zary10:38
xG 0.35–0.63 (36%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Backlund – Coleman – Huberdeau10:24
xG 0.28–0.62 (31%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Andersson15:04
xG 0.97–0.71 (58%)attempts 15–8goals 2–2
- Tanev – Hanifin14:10
xG 0.85–0.59 (59%)attempts 16–10goals 3–0
- Zadorov – Gilbert12:46
xG 0.23–0.81 (22%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson11:15
xG 0.71–0.22 (77%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Benn – Dadonov – Johnston10:09
xG 0.76–0.32 (71%)attempts 13–13goals 2–1
- Faksa – Steel – Dellandrea7:06
xG 0.18–0.65 (21%)attempts 5–7goals 0–2
- Duchene – Seguin – Marchment11:13
xG 0.02–0.60 (4%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHeiskanen – Harley5:46
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Suter – Lundkvist2:26
xG 0.26–0.02 (92%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Lundkvist – Harley9:12
xG 0.20–0.25 (44%)attempts 4–9goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).