Fri, Nov 24, 2023·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Colorado Avalanche 3, Minnesota Wild 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 19 | 19 | 17 | 325 |
| MIN | 06 | 27 | 08 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:43COLRoss ColtonAssists: Bowen Byram, Riley Tufte · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 8:39COLValeri NichushkinPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Devon Toews · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 9:13MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Marco Rossi · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 14:21MINJoel Eriksson EkPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Kirill Kaprizov · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 4:56COLKurtis MacDermidGWGAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Fredrik Olofsson · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 10:08COLJonathan Drouin: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:46MINMarco Rossi: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:03COLRoss Colton: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 2:38MINMarcus Johansson: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:45MINMarcus Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:31MINJake Middleton: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 12:17COLCaleb Jones: Holding2 min
- P2 13:22COLBowen Byram: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 1:04MINBrock Faber: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:24MINJoel Eriksson Ek: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:42COLBowen Byram: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:38MINMatt Boldy: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWood – Colton – Kiviranta4:05
xG 0.33–0.09 (78%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Drouin – Rantanen2:18
xG 0.23–0.02 (94%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Johansen – Drouin – Tufte4:57
xG 0.16–0.01 (92%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Cogliano – MacDermid – Olofsson2:36
xG 0.12–0.11 (54%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar12:15
xG 0.80–0.41 (66%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Manson – Byram8:53
xG 0.46–0.21 (68%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Johnson – Manson2:14
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Kaprizov – Rossi8:35
xG 0.59–0.29 (67%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Foligno – Hartman – Eriksson Ek8:28
xG 0.40–0.26 (61%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Johansson – Gaudreau – Boldy6:23
xG 0.12–0.20 (37%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Maroon – Duhaime – Dewar5:01
xG 0.09–0.41 (18%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Merrill8:32
xG 0.81–0.17 (82%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Brodin – Faber13:15
xG 0.64–0.61 (51%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Middleton10:26
xG 0.31–0.32 (49%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).