Fri, Nov 24, 2023·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Vancouver Canucks 5, Seattle Kraken 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 18 | 17 | 312 | 527 |
| SEA | 010 | 112 | 02 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:05VANTeddy BluegerSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.23 xG1–0
- P2 12:07VANDakota JoshuaGWGAssists: Conor Garland, Nils Aman · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 17:29SEATye KartyeAssists: Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 9:43VANSam LaffertyAssists: Filip Hronek, Quinn Hughes · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 12:38VANNils HoglanderAssists: Nils Aman · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–1
- P3 17:30VANIlya MikheyevAssists: Conor Garland, Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.27 xG5–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:23VANNils Hoglander: Holding2 min
- P1 6:23VANJ.T. Miller: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:33VANTyler Myers: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 13:15SEABrian Dumoulin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:25SEATye Kartye: Interference2 min
- P3 15:25SEATye Kartye: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:36SEAYanni Gourde: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:36VANTeddy Blueger: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pettersson won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestLafferty – Pettersson – Mikheyev8:03
xG 0.39–0.32 (55%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Miller – Boeser – Beauvillier10:36
xG 0.42–0.37 (53%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Di Giuseppe – Hoglander – Aman8:35
xG 0.23–0.26 (47%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Blueger – Joshua – Garland8:47
xG 0.12–0.30 (30%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Juulsen12:33
xG 1.02–0.53 (66%)attempts 19–16goals 1–0
- Hronek – Hughes12:47
xG 0.65–0.43 (60%)attempts 15–9goals 2–0
- Myers – Hronek2:41
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Bellemare – Yamamoto2:08
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers9:45
xG 0.45–0.39 (54%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen9:31
xG 0.18–0.40 (31%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Wennberg – Kartye6:29
xG 0.23–0.46 (34%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Dumoulin12:11
xG 0.68–0.36 (65%)attempts 15–7goals 0–2
- Larsson – Dunn16:27
xG 0.75–0.78 (49%)attempts 19–14goals 1–0
- Oleksiak – Borgen11:42
xG 0.23–0.62 (27%)attempts 6–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).