Sat, Nov 25, 2023·Prudential Center, Newark
Buffalo Sabres 2, New Jersey Devils 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 94% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 03 | 13 | 16 | 212 |
| NJD | 417 | 110 | 210 | 737 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:31NJDAlexander HoltzAssists: Erik Haula, Dougie Hamilton · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 11:09NJDTyler ToffoliAssists: Brendan Smith, Dawson Mercer · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–2
- P1 15:20NJDNico HischierGWGAssists: Ondrej Palat, Jesper Bratt · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–3
- P1 18:27NJDOndrej PalatAssists: Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–4
- P2 1:53BUFJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Alex Tuch, Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–4
- P2 2:44NJDTyler ToffoliAssists: Alexander Holtz, Luke Hughes · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–5
- P3 0:50NJDDawson MercerAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Jack Hughes · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–6
- P3 3:55BUFKyle OkposoPPAssists: Owen Power, JJ Peterka · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–6
- P3 5:38NJDLuke HughesPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–7
Penalties (5)
- P1 18:35NJDBrendan Smith: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:35BUFConnor Clifton: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:42NJDDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:35NJDBrendan Smith: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:24BUFRasmus Dahlin: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mittelstadt won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Olofsson – Krebs – Rosen2:38
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Okposo – Krebs – Kulich10:27
xG 0.16–0.23 (41%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Mittelstadt12:54
xG 0.38–0.78 (33%)attempts 8–10goals 0–2
- Olofsson – Jost – Rosen7:38
xG 0.03–0.75 (3%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Dahlin5:20
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Clifton – Johnson2:52
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Dahlin – Johnson4:39
xG 0.10–0.10 (50%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Bratt – Hischier10:37
xG 1.12–0.15 (88%)attempts 19–4goals 2–0
- Toffoli – Hughes – Holtz3:13
xG 0.60–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Haula – McLeod – Holtz6:59
xG 0.58–0.03 (95%)attempts 16–3goals 1–0
- Toffoli – Hughes – Mercer12:05
xG 0.58–0.24 (71%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Hughes12:26
xG 0.87–0.05 (94%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Marino – Bahl12:05
xG 0.89–0.13 (87%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Hamilton – Siegenthaler13:13
xG 0.81–0.26 (76%)attempts 26–6goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 94% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).