Sat, Nov 25, 2023·UBS Arena, Elmont
Philadelphia Flyers 1, New York Islanders 0 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 012 | 012 | 012 | 04 | 1 | 140 |
| NYI | 06 | 09 | 07 | 03 | 0 | 025 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- No goals in regulation or overtime.
Shootout
- 1. NYI Bo Horvat stopped
- 2. PHI Cam Atkinson stopped
- 3. NYI Oliver Wahlstrom stopped
- 4. PHI Sean Couturier stopped
- 5. NYI Mathew Barzal stopped
- 6. PHI Morgan Frost stopped
- 7. NYI Kyle Palmieri stopped
- 8. PHI Tyson Foerster scored
Penalties (4)
- P1 9:46PHIRyan Poehling: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:24PHIRasmus Ristolainen: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:56PHISean Walker: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:05NYIAlexander Romanov: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Poehling
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Konecny – Foerster10:21
xG 0.48–0.23 (67%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Tippett – Frost8:53
xG 0.28–0.09 (75%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Poehling – Cates – Farabee8:11
xG 0.27–0.32 (46%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Laughton – Hathaway6:13
xG 0.12–0.24 (32%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Ristolainen15:29
xG 0.55–0.22 (71%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Sanheim – York15:01
xG 0.31–0.25 (55%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Seeler – Walker14:40
xG 0.61–0.70 (46%)attempts 26–16goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Cizikas – Gauthier7:30
xG 0.19–0.08 (71%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Engvall12:27
xG 0.39–0.33 (55%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Horvat – Barzal – Holmstrom10:32
xG 0.50–0.50 (50%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
- Lee – Pageau – Wahlstrom7:44
xG 0.10–0.38 (21%)attempts 4–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPulock – Romanov13:50
xG 0.79–0.47 (63%)attempts 21–19goals 0–0
- Pulock – Dobson2:02
xG 0.03–0.01 (80%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Hutton – Bolduc7:48
xG 0.23–0.28 (45%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).