Sun, Nov 26, 2023·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Minnesota Wild 1, Detroit Red Wings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 16 | 014 | 018 | 138 |
| DET | 110 | 16 | 27 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:06DETDavid PerronPPAssists: Lucas Raymond, Shayne Gostisbehere · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 19:48MINJoel Eriksson EkPPAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Mats Zuccarello · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 16:53DETDylan LarkinGWGAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P3 1:29DETDavid PerronPPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Dylan Larkin · Snap, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 19:37DETShayne GostisbehereENAssists: J.T. Compher, Michael Rasmussen · Wrist, 0.62 xG1–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 1:09DETJoseph Veleno: Tripping2 min
- P1 3:09MINAlex Goligoski: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 10:46MINMatt Boldy: Holding2 min
- P1 16:01MINMatt Boldy: Holding2 min
- P1 19:35DETKlim Kostin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:25DETMoritz Seider: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 15:25MINMarco Rossi: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 17:42DETAndrew Copp: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 0:52MINPatrick Maroon: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 8:00DETAlex DeBrincat: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:35MINRyan Hartman: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:35DETMoritz Seider: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:35MINRyan Hartman: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:19DETMoritz Seider: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Copp won the faceoff against Hartman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Kaprizov – Rossi12:05
xG 0.57–0.19 (75%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Duhaime – Dewar3:37
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Maroon – Foligno – Hartman9:11
xG 0.26–0.17 (60%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy5:51
xG 0.15–0.11 (58%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Middleton9:35
xG 0.56–0.18 (76%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Bogosian7:42
xG 0.41–0.11 (79%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Brodin – Faber17:01
xG 0.30–0.26 (53%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCompher – DeBrincat – Rasmussen7:11
xG 0.35–0.27 (57%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Perron – Copp – Fabbri7:29
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Larkin – Veleno – Raymond7:10
xG 0.02–0.31 (6%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Fischer – Sprong – Kostin5:52
xG 0.11–0.56 (16%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gostisbehere – Seider8:52
xG 0.18–0.34 (35%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Holl – Maatta12:50
xG 0.21–0.39 (35%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Petry – Chiarot15:06
xG 0.26–0.50 (34%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).