Sun, Nov 26, 2023·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Winnipeg Jets 2, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 014 | 09 | 211 | 234 |
| NSH | 113 | 24 | 09 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:40NSHYakov TreninAssists: Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 1:26NSHRoman JosiAssists: Kiefer Sherwood, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–2
- P2 6:22NSHGustav NyquistPPGWGAssists: Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–3
- P3 10:28WPGJosh MorrisseyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 11:10WPGCole PerfettiPPAssists: Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P2 6:10WPGVladislav Namestnikov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:29NSHKiefer Sherwood: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:33WPGJosh Morrissey: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:04NSHSpencer Stastney: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestJonsson-Fjallby – Barron – Gustafsson5:48
xG 0.44–0.08 (84%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Iafallo16:00
xG 0.79–0.78 (50%)attempts 17–17goals 0–1
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton11:58
xG 0.12–0.31 (28%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Namestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti11:25
xG 0.26–0.52 (33%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Samberg8:50
xG 0.41–0.13 (75%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- DeMelo – Morrissey16:19
xG 0.71–0.47 (60%)attempts 19–15goals 0–0
- Morrissey – Pionk3:34
xG 0.39–0.35 (52%)attempts 6–3goals 1–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg13:18
xG 0.52–0.22 (71%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- McCarron – Tomasino – Parssinen2:06
xG 0.05–0.18 (21%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
- Sherwood – Parssinen – Evangelista4:38
xG 0.15–0.32 (32%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Smith9:23
xG 0.07–0.61 (10%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Barrie3:11
xG 0.58–0.13 (81%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Josi – Stastney2:52
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Schenn – Josi2:39
xG 0.12–0.03 (81%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).