Sun, Nov 26, 2023·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Anaheim Ducks 2, Edmonton Oilers 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 212 | 07 | 04 | 223 |
| EDM | 410 | 210 | 26 | 826 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:32ANAMax JonesAssists: Brett Leason, Urho Vaakanainen · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 4:36EDMEvander KaneAssists: Connor Brown, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 6:10ANAMax JonesAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Pavel Mintyukov · Snap, 0.16 xG2–1
- P1 9:29EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Zach Hyman, Darnell Nurse · Snap, 0.13 xG2–2
- P1 12:37EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsGWGAssists: Darnell Nurse, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.10 xG2–3
- P1 17:50EDMZach HymanAssists: Connor McDavid, Vincent Desharnais · Snap, 0.11 xG2–4
- P2 5:01EDMJames HamblinAssists: Adam Erne, Vincent Desharnais · Snap, 0.10 xG2–5
- P2 7:20EDMZach HymanAssists: Connor McDavid · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–6
- P3 7:11EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.14 xG2–7
- P3 15:50EDMMattias EkholmPPAssists: Darnell Nurse, Evander Kane · Slap, 0.09 xG2–8
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:02EDMLeon Draisaitl: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:47ANARyan Strome: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:19EDMEvander Kane: Interference2 min
- P3 2:45ANAIlya Lyubushkin: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:25ANABrock McGinn: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:11ANARyan Strome: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:23EDMDarnell Nurse: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:24ANAMason McTavish: Holding2 min
- P3 15:28ANAAlex Killorn: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestCarrick – McGinn – Leason6:38
xG 0.18–0.12 (59%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Killorn – Henrique – Terry8:16
xG 0.31–0.34 (47%)attempts 10–6goals 0–3
- Silfverberg – Jones – Groulx8:17
xG 0.19–0.37 (34%)attempts 4–5goals 1–1
- Strome – Vatrano – McTavish12:13
xG 0.31–0.89 (26%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Vaakanainen10:51
xG 0.30–0.03 (91%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Vaakanainen – LaCombe2:30
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Lyubushkin – Mintyukov9:45
xG 0.38–0.50 (44%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid11:50
xG 1.21–0.46 (73%)attempts 13–17goals 4–0
- Janmark – Erne – Hamblin6:25
xG 0.17–0.11 (61%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Kane – Brown – Draisaitl10:47
xG 0.09–0.09 (51%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Foegele – Ryan – McLeod5:31
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Nurse10:23
xG 0.56–0.21 (73%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
- Kulak – Nurse2:28
xG 0.20–0.02 (93%)attempts 3–4goals 2–0
- Nurse – Bouchard4:23
xG 0.43–0.34 (56%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).