Mon, Nov 27, 2023·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vegas Golden Knights 1, Calgary Flames 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 18 | 011 | 09 | 00 | 128 |
| CGY | 011 | 09 | 19 | 15 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:53VGKWilliam KarlssonPPAssists: Nicolas Roy, Michael Amadio · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P3 2:31CGYA.J. GreerAssists: Nazem Kadri, Connor Zary · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- OT 4:55CGYMacKenzie WeegarGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:35VGKWilliam Carrier: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 13:23CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:05CGYConnor Zary: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 18:43CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:57VGKNicolas Hague: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:05VGKNicolas Roy: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestCarrier – Amadio – Roy8:09
xG 0.41–0.03 (93%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Marchessault – Barbashev10:48
xG 0.47–0.43 (52%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
- Stone – Stephenson – Eichel13:00
xG 0.51–0.56 (48%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Kolesar – Howden – Cotter7:51
xG 0.14–0.56 (20%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Hague13:43
xG 0.44–0.36 (54%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Hutton – Whitecloud12:52
xG 0.51–0.51 (50%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- McNabb – Korczak15:39
xG 0.35–0.59 (37%)attempts 9–23goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Greer – Dube3:39
xG 0.19–0.02 (89%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Huberdeau12:01
xG 0.41–0.31 (57%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Greer – Dube – Ruzicka4:02
xG 0.11–0.05 (71%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Mangiapane – Sharangovich10:25
xG 0.41–0.60 (41%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hanifin11:02
xG 0.55–0.45 (55%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Weegar – Zadorov3:23
xG 0.11–0.01 (91%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Weegar – Andersson12:42
xG 0.58–0.48 (54%)attempts 27–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).