Mon, Nov 27, 2023·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Washington Capitals 1, San Jose Sharks 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 013 | 114 | 07 | 134 |
| SJS | 111 | 06 | 16 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:23SJSFabian ZetterlundAssists: Nikita Okhotiuk, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 16:25WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk, Martin Fehérváry · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 12:48SJSLuke KuninPPGWGAssists: Justin Bailey, Ty Emberson · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:24SJSKyle Burroughs: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:16WSHRasmus Sandin: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:40SJSNikita Okhotiuk: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:50SJSJacob MacDonald: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:35WSHJoel Edmundson: Interference2 min
- P3 11:19WSHMartin Fehérváry: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against Kunin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Mantha – Malenstyn6:38
xG 0.39–0.05 (89%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson11:38
xG 0.51–0.24 (68%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Strome – Phillips – McMichael7:34
xG 0.29–0.13 (69%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Milano – Protas – Lapierre8:20
xG 0.06–0.21 (23%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Sandin8:35
xG 0.28–0.02 (95%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Jensen – Edmundson9:38
xG 0.41–0.17 (70%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Fehérváry5:17
xG 0.27–0.05 (85%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Carpenter – Smith2:27
xG 0.08–0.01 (87%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Granlund – Duclair – Zetterlund9:37
xG 0.30–0.44 (40%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Carpenter – Labanc – Smith3:38
xG 0.10–0.30 (26%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
- Hoffman – Kunin – Eklund7:09
xG 0.01–0.22 (4%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Benning – Ferraro2:04
xG 0.05–0.08 (38%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Benning – Addison9:06
xG 0.16–0.22 (42%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Ferraro – Emberson10:24
xG 0.11–0.38 (22%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).