Tue, Nov 28, 2023·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 111 | 117 | 28 | 436 |
| PHI | 09 | 112 | 08 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:39CARMichael BuntingAssists: Sebastian Aho, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P2 7:14PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Tyson Foerster · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 13:25CARBrendan LemieuxGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
- P3 16:34CARSeth JarvisAssists: Sebastian Aho, Michael Bunting · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 17:16CARJesperi KotkaniemiENAssists: Jesper Fast, Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.70 xG4–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 0:53CARJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:25CARJordan Staal: Interference2 min
- P2 18:11PHIBobby Brink: Holding2 min
- P2 0:00PHIScott Laughton: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Poehling won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNoesen – Lemieux – Drury8:18
xG 0.64–0.01 (99%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- Bunting – Aho – Jarvis12:01
xG 0.77–0.35 (69%)attempts 17–14goals 2–0
- Teravainen – Necas – Kotkaniemi10:19
xG 0.20–0.21 (49%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook10:00
xG 0.52–0.82 (39%)attempts 14–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Chatfield13:23
xG 1.33–0.12 (92%)attempts 26–8goals 3–0
- Skjei – Pesce15:34
xG 0.40–0.15 (73%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Burns – Slavin18:14
xG 0.43–1.25 (26%)attempts 16–29goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestAtkinson – Couturier – Konecny4:01
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Poehling – Farabee – Brink6:11
xG 0.53–0.24 (69%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Couturier – Konecny – Foerster8:05
xG 0.27–0.13 (67%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Atkinson – Tippett – Frost5:36
xG 0.23–0.14 (62%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Ristolainen11:53
xG 0.54–0.21 (72%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Walker3:22
xG 0.12–0.09 (57%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Seeler – Walker13:26
xG 0.26–0.55 (32%)attempts 12–20goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).