Tue, Nov 28, 2023·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
St. Louis Blues 1, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 19 | 05 | 010 | 124 |
| MIN | 210 | 017 | 110 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:41MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Jared Spurgeon · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 10:30STLColton ParaykoAssists: Sammy Blais, Alexey Toropchenko · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 18:10MINFrederick GaudreauGWGAssists: Patrick Maroon, Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 17:08MINMatt BoldyAssists: Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 0:22MINBrock Faber: High sticking2 min
- P1 7:27MINMarco Rossi: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:35STLOskar Sundqvist: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:55MINMatt Boldy: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rossi won the faceoff against Sundqvist
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Saad – Vrana4:50
xG 0.21–0.12 (63%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Hayes – Saad – Kyrou3:31
xG 0.21–0.15 (59%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Blais – Toropchenko6:45
xG 0.07–0.13 (34%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Schenn – Kapanen – Kyrou6:28
xG 0.13–0.19 (40%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Scandella – Perunovich6:39
xG 0.40–0.43 (48%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Faulk – Krug17:13
xG 0.51–0.80 (39%)attempts 18–20goals 0–0
- Leddy – Parayko15:08
xG 0.13–0.89 (13%)attempts 11–17goals 1–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Kaprizov – Rossi13:23
xG 0.94–0.52 (64%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Duhaime – Lettieri – Dewar6:03
xG 0.46–0.05 (91%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy8:24
xG 0.39–0.23 (62%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Maroon – Foligno – Gaudreau8:48
xG 0.34–0.36 (48%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Faber20:40
xG 1.31–0.62 (68%)attempts 25–20goals 2–0
- Spurgeon – Middleton12:57
xG 0.84–0.39 (68%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Bogosian9:57
xG 0.41–0.40 (51%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).