Tue, Nov 28, 2023·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Edmonton Oilers 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 011 | 28 | 25 | 03 | 0 | 427 |
| EDM | 112 | 312 | 09 | 01 | 2 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:29EDMSam GagnerAssists: James Hamblin · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 1:11VGKMark StoneAssists: Kaedan Korczak, Jack Eichel · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 5:08EDMMattias JanmarkAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Connor McDavid · Deflected, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 5:51VGKMichael AmadioAssists: Nicolas Roy · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 7:54EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Cody Ceci · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–3
- P2 17:23EDMEvander KanePPAssists: Evan Bouchard, Connor McDavid · Backhand, 0.24 xG2–4
- P3 13:30VGKBen HuttonAssists: Paul Cotter, Michael Amadio · Snap, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 17:52VGKKeegan KolesarAssists: Zach Whitecloud, Nicolas Roy · Tip-in, 0.13 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. EDM Connor McDavid scored
- 2. VGK Jonathan Marchessault stopped
- 3. EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored
- 4. VGK Jack Eichel stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:48EDMAdam Erne: High sticking2 min
- P1 6:48VGKPaul Cotter: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 8:50EDMDarnell Nurse: Interference2 min
- P1 15:54EDMEvan Bouchard: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:17VGKWilliam Carrier: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 7:22EDMEvander Kane: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:49EDMConnor McDavid: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:42VGKJack Eichel: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 5:26EDMEvander Kane: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:58VGKNicolas Hague: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestCarrier – Kolesar – Roy2:48
xG 0.13–0.03 (81%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Kolesar – Howden – Cotter5:38
xG 0.22–0.13 (63%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Marchessault – Barbashev10:16
xG 0.28–0.28 (49%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Carrier – Amadio – Roy6:16
xG 0.22–0.23 (49%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Whitecloud7:36
xG 0.30–0.16 (65%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Hague – Whitecloud6:02
xG 0.41–0.28 (60%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Pietrangelo – Hague8:13
xG 0.23–0.13 (64%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestFoegele – Ryan – McLeod7:15
xG 0.30–0.02 (95%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Janmark – McDavid9:46
xG 0.34–0.27 (56%)attempts 8–6goals 1–2
- Kane – Brown – Draisaitl9:32
xG 0.12–0.12 (50%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Gagner – Erne – Hamblin4:32
xG 0.21–0.28 (43%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard15:43
xG 0.67–0.38 (64%)attempts 19–8goals 1–2
- Ceci – Nurse13:19
xG 0.39–0.27 (59%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Kulak – Desharnais10:39
xG 0.45–0.42 (51%)attempts 12–13goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).