Tue, Nov 28, 2023·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Anaheim Ducks 1, Vancouver Canucks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 012 | 115 | 04 | 131 |
| VAN | 16 | 06 | 215 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:34VANBrock BoeserAssists: Filip Hronek, J.T. Miller · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 5:10ANARyan StromePPAssists: Adam Henrique, Frank Vatrano · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 0:32VANElias PetterssonGWGAssists: Tyler Myers, Ilya Mikheyev · Wrap-around, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 19:12VANBrock BoeserENAssists: J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.42 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:34ANAAlex Killorn: Holding2 min
- P1 11:53VANQuinn Hughes: Holding2 min
- P1 11:53ANASam Carrick: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:05VANPhillip Di Giuseppe: Interference2 min
- P2 0:47ANAAlex Killorn: Interference2 min
- P2 3:47VANTyler Myers: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 9:09ANAUrho Vaakanainen: Interference2 min
- P3 15:36VANConor Garland: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 18:28ANABo Groulx: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against McTavish
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSilfverberg – Jones – Groulx8:31
xG 0.33–0.21 (62%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Carrick – McGinn – Johnston7:37
xG 0.04–0.14 (22%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Killorn – Henrique – Terry9:54
xG 0.62–0.74 (46%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
- Strome – Vatrano – McTavish9:55
xG 0.10–0.57 (15%)attempts 7–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestVaakanainen – Luneau8:09
xG 0.59–0.28 (68%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Fowler – Mintyukov3:36
xG 0.25–0.26 (49%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Fowler – Vaakanainen2:16
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestPettersson – Mikheyev – Kuzmenko8:39
xG 0.46–0.04 (92%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Miller – Di Giuseppe – Boeser8:56
xG 0.33–0.20 (62%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Lafferty – Hoglander – Aman6:57
xG 0.24–0.12 (67%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Blueger – Joshua – Garland8:56
xG 0.48–0.53 (47%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Hughes6:39
xG 0.67–0.00 (100%)attempts 14–1goals 1–0
- Juulsen – Hughes7:14
xG 0.34–0.01 (97%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Cole – Myers7:33
xG 0.49–0.23 (68%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).