Wed, Nov 29, 2023·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Washington Capitals 2, Los Angeles Kings 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 15 | 17 | 03 | 215 |
| LAK | 111 | 013 | 015 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:04LAKArthur KaliyevAssists: Andreas Englund, Jordan Spence · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 12:12WSHAnthony ManthaAssists: Connor McMichael, Aliaksei Protas · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 18:30WSHConnor McMichaelGWGAssists: Anthony Mantha, Aliaksei Protas · Bat, 0.30 xG2–1
Penalties (3)
- P1 18:25WSHDylan Strome: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:26WSHJohn Carlson: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:53WSHNic Dowd: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestMantha – McMichael – Protas10:01
xG 1.52–0.30 (84%)attempts 11–11goals 2–1
- Dowd – Aube-Kubel – Malenstyn11:17
xG 0.20–0.35 (37%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Milano – Strome – Phillips9:37
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson10:33
xG 0.38–0.94 (29%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Sandin2:57
xG 0.38–0.02 (94%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Jensen – Edmundson12:08
xG 1.08–0.81 (57%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Sandin15:42
xG 0.26–0.45 (36%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Kempe – Byfield11:24
xG 1.27–0.28 (82%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Danault – Fiala – Moore12:14
xG 0.52–0.12 (82%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Lewis – Anderson-Dolan – Kaliyev7:02
xG 0.31–0.50 (38%)attempts 5–7goals 1–1
- Grundstrom – Dubois – Laferriere11:23
xG 0.46–1.09 (30%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Anderson17:09
xG 1.20–0.09 (93%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Gavrikov – Roy16:27
xG 0.61–0.68 (47%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Englund – Spence11:28
xG 0.77–1.23 (39%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).