Thu, Nov 30, 2023·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New Jersey Devils 4, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 27 | 016 | 111 | 11 | 435 |
| PHI | 08 | 125 | 214 | 00 | 347 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:10NJDAlexander HoltzAssists: Michael McLeod, Colin Miller · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 15:12NJDJack HughesAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Dawson Mercer · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 11:49PHIMorgan FrostPPAssists: Travis Konecny, Cam York · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P3 4:31NJDTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Nico Hischier, Jack Hughes · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–1
- P3 15:00PHITyson FoersterAssists: Sean Walker, Sean Couturier · Slap, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 19:09PHITyson FoersterPPAssists: Scott Laughton, Bobby Brink · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–3
- OT 0:28NJDLuke HughesGWGAssists: Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 6:45PHISean Couturier: High sticking2 min
- P1 8:45NJDKevin Bahl: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:48PHIMorgan Frost: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:15PHIGarnet Hathaway: Boarding5 min
- P1 16:15PHIGarnet Hathaway: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 3:42NJDNico Hischier: Holding2 min
- P2 10:26NJDNico Hischier: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:55PHIRasmus Ristolainen: Interference2 min
- P2 19:52NJDLuke Hughes: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 3:49PHIMorgan Frost: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:46NJDJack Hughes: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:10NJDBrendan Smith: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Laughton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Hughes – Mercer9:24
xG 0.55–0.44 (56%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Tierney – Laberge – Bastian2:59
xG 0.01–0.13 (4%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Palat – Bratt – Hischier6:17
xG 0.09–0.30 (23%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Lazar – McLeod – Holtz9:19
xG 0.32–0.74 (30%)attempts 7–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Miller9:15
xG 0.83–0.17 (83%)attempts 16–12goals 2–0
- Siegenthaler – Hughes12:34
xG 0.32–0.81 (28%)attempts 5–21goals 0–0
- Marino – Bahl11:13
xG 0.20–0.84 (19%)attempts 5–16goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Konecny – Foerster8:22
xG 0.66–0.25 (72%)attempts 12–5goals 1–1
- Atkinson – Laughton – Poehling4:12
xG 0.54–0.33 (62%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Tippett – Frost – Brink9:49
xG 0.37–0.56 (40%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – York11:44
xG 0.53–0.21 (72%)attempts 13–7goals 0–2
- Seeler – Walker10:34
xG 0.56–0.32 (64%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Zamula11:32
xG 0.48–0.90 (35%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).