Thu, Nov 30, 2023·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Minnesota Wild 6, Nashville Predators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 313 | 28 | 110 | 631 |
| NSH | 010 | 08 | 19 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:08MINConnor DewarAssists: Brandon Duhaime, Marco Rossi · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 14:01MINJake MiddletonGWGAssists: Marcus Foligno, Connor Dewar · Backhand, 0.05 xG2–0
- P1 14:32MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Jared Spurgeon · Slap, 0.06 xG3–0
- P2 1:43MINPatrick MaroonAssists: Alex Goligoski, Frederick Gaudreau · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–0
- P2 11:12MINConnor DewarAssists: Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–0
- P3 2:37NSHJuuso ParssinenAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Luke Evangelista · Tip-in, 0.07 xG5–1
- P3 9:47MINConnor DewarAssists: Vinni Lettieri, Zach Bogosian · Deflected, 0.14 xG6–1
Penalties (14)
- P1 3:58MINMarco Rossi: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:30MINKirill Kaprizov: Interference2 min
- P1 14:01NSHLuke Evangelista: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
- P1 15:44NSHLuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:44MINMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:53NSHRoman Josi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 18:45NSHJeremy Lauzon: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:45MINMatt Boldy: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:45MINKirill Kaprizov: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:45NSHDante Fabbro: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:16MINKirill Kaprizov: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:55NSHDante Fabbro: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:37MINJake Middleton: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:13NSHPhilip Tomasino: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Rossi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Foligno – Gaudreau6:18
xG 0.29–0.12 (70%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Duhaime – Lettieri – Dewar6:10
xG 0.48–0.57 (46%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Rossi10:00
xG 0.22–0.37 (38%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy8:40
xG 0.15–0.61 (20%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Middleton9:24
xG 0.74–0.38 (66%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Bogosian10:50
xG 0.44–0.62 (42%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Brodin – Faber15:19
xG 0.25–0.85 (23%)attempts 9–18goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSissons – Trenin – Smith3:26
xG 0.36–0.05 (88%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Forsberg – Parssinen – Evangelista2:12
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
- Sherwood – Parssinen – Evangelista3:15
xG 0.11–0.13 (45%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- McCarron – Trenin – Smith2:19
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Fabbro7:22
xG 0.46–0.07 (87%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Barrie4:16
xG 0.31–0.17 (64%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Schenn – Josi3:22
xG 0.22–0.19 (53%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).