Thu, Nov 30, 2023·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Buffalo Sabres 4, St. Louis Blues 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 115 | 216 | 115 | 446 |
| STL | 38 | 26 | 16 | 620 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:08STLBrandon SaadAssists: Oskar Sundqvist · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 5:02STLBrayden SchennPPAssists: Torey Krug, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 10:59STLJake NeighboursAssists: Nick Leddy, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–3
- P1 13:32BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Kyle Okposo, Peyton Krebs · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 6:10BUFZach BensonAssists: Dylan Cozens · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 10:53BUFPeyton KrebsAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Jordan Greenway · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
- P2 13:04STLKevin HayesAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–4
- P2 13:28STLBrayden SchennGWGAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–5
- P3 4:38STLJake NeighboursAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.26 xG3–6
- P3 16:42BUFJJ PeterkaAssists: Dylan Cozens, Zach Benson · Wrist, 0.26 xG4–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:56BUFJordan Greenway: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 5:56STLAlexey Toropchenko: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:13BUFRasmus Dahlin: Interference2 min
- P2 2:08STLTyler Tucker: Holding2 min
- P3 10:10STLPavel Buchnevich: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mittelstadt won the faceoff against Thomas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestCozens – Peterka – Benson11:30
xG 0.67–0.54 (55%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Mittelstadt12:13
xG 0.84–0.78 (52%)attempts 14–6goals 0–2
- Okposo – Greenway – Krebs7:26
xG 0.50–0.45 (53%)attempts 13–7goals 2–2
- Olofsson – Jost – Rosen5:51
xG 0.32–0.33 (49%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Dahlin15:18
xG 1.30–0.17 (88%)attempts 26–5goals 1–1
- Dahlin – Power3:38
xG 0.32–0.26 (56%)attempts 7–1goals 1–1
- Jokiharju – Power11:52
xG 0.40–0.37 (52%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Hayes – Kyrou11:27
xG 0.82–0.49 (62%)attempts 11–13goals 2–1
- Buchnevich – Thomas – Neighbours13:19
xG 0.83–0.78 (51%)attempts 7–16goals 2–0
- Blais – Toropchenko – Alexandrov4:43
xG 0.03–0.31 (8%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Saad – Sundqvist – Kapanen9:32
xG 0.35–0.67 (34%)attempts 7–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Parayko15:54
xG 1.17–0.84 (58%)attempts 13–15goals 2–1
- Scandella – Tucker11:48
xG 0.47–0.65 (42%)attempts 10–16goals 2–1
- Faulk – Krug16:49
xG 0.37–1.09 (26%)attempts 8–23goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).