Thu, Nov 30, 2023·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Edmonton Oilers 3, Winnipeg Jets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 012 | 010 | 317 | 339 |
| WPG | 18 | 010 | 08 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:27WPGCole PerfettiPPAssists: Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–1
- P3 13:11EDMDarnell NurseAssists: Ryan McLeod, Mattias Janmark · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 17:47EDMLeon DraisaitlPPGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 19:40EDMRyan McLeodENAssists: Zach Hyman, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.61 xG3–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:00WPGMason Appleton: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 17:45EDMBrett Kulak: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 13:23EDMEvander Kane: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:43EDMConnor McDavid: Interference2 min
- P3 16:36WPGGabriel Vilardi: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid10:14
xG 0.61–0.07 (90%)attempts 17–5goals 0–0
- Gagner – Foegele – McLeod7:01
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Janmark – Ryan – Hamblin4:36
xG 0.19–0.08 (70%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Brown – Janmark – McLeod2:48
xG 0.15–0.12 (57%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard19:14
xG 1.18–0.67 (64%)attempts 34–8goals 0–0
- Kulak – Desharnais9:51
xG 0.41–0.05 (89%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Ceci – Nurse17:51
xG 0.50–1.32 (27%)attempts 15–19goals 1–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Ehlers – Connor14:23
xG 1.17–0.52 (69%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Iafallo – Perfetti9:09
xG 0.07–0.22 (24%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Jonsson-Fjallby – Vilardi – Barron6:19
xG 0.09–0.25 (27%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton12:07
xG 0.50–0.84 (37%)attempts 10–22goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Pionk13:32
xG 1.22–0.25 (83%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Samberg12:23
xG 0.12–0.73 (14%)attempts 4–21goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey15:41
xG 0.37–1.08 (25%)attempts 6–30goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).