Thu, Nov 30, 2023·Honda Center, Anaheim
Washington Capitals 5, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 413 | 04 | 19 | 526 |
| ANA | 210 | 015 | 27 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:27WSHAnthony ManthaUnassisted · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 1:49ANATristan LuneauUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 7:51ANABrett LeasonAssists: Leo Carlsson · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–2
- P1 15:54WSHTom WilsonUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–2
- P1 18:39WSHTom WilsonPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–2
- P1 18:59WSHNic DowdAssists: Rasmus Sandin, Nicolas Aube-Kubel · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 11:45ANABrock McGinnAssists: Brett Leason, Tristan Luneau · Between legs, 0.07 xG4–3
- P3 14:22WSHTom WilsonPPGWGAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.26 xG5–3
- P3 19:32ANAFrank VatranoAssists: Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.21 xG5–4
Penalties (15)
- P1 5:05WSHTom Wilson: Boarding2 min
- P1 13:12ANAAdam Henrique: Holding2 min
- P1 13:42WSHTom Wilson: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:28ANAAlex Killorn: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:43WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Holding2 min
- P2 5:04WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:04ANAMason McTavish: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:35WSHNicolas Aube-Kubel: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:02WSHNicolas Aube-Kubel: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:42ANATroy Terry: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:24ANAIlya Lyubushkin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:15WSHConnor McMichael: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:15ANARadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:40ANAJakob Silfverberg: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:56ANAFrank Vatrano: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against Carrick
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestMantha – McMichael – Protas7:36
xG 0.62–0.32 (66%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson5:26
xG 0.35–0.26 (57%)attempts 5–9goals 0–2
- Dowd – Aube-Kubel – Malenstyn6:18
xG 0.22–0.27 (45%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Milano – Strome – Lapierre4:14
xG 0.00–0.61 (0%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Sandin10:51
xG 1.08–0.68 (61%)attempts 12–11goals 3–1
- Jensen – Sandin2:30
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Carlson – Sandin2:38
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Terry – Carlsson8:44
xG 0.44–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 1–0
- Carrick – McGinn – Leason7:23
xG 0.37–0.18 (67%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Jones6:33
xG 0.29–0.48 (38%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Strome – Vatrano – McTavish5:30
xG 0.09–0.39 (19%)attempts 3–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – LaCombe12:08
xG 0.78–0.33 (71%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Fowler – Luneau13:23
xG 0.95–0.61 (61%)attempts 17–8goals 2–1
- Lyubushkin – Mintyukov7:52
xG 0.03–0.26 (11%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).