Fri, Dec 1, 2023·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Ottawa Senators 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 216 | 011 | 016 | 243 |
| CBJ | 211 | 25 | 07 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:43OTTClaude GirouxAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Artem Zub · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 11:08OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Thomas Chabot, Drake Batherson · Slap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 14:53CBJPatrik LainePPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Zach Werenski · Snap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P1 15:36CBJDmitri VoronkovUnassisted · Snap, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 5:16CBJAdam FantilliGWGAssists: Ivan Provorov, Justin Danforth · Tip-in, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 8:54CBJBoone JennerPPAssists: Zach Werenski, Johnny Gaudreau · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:08CBJKirill Marchenko: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:11CBJZach Werenski: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:00CBJAdam Fantilli: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 13:52OTTMathieu Joseph: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:26OTTDominik Kubalik: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:25CBJMathieu Olivier: Boarding2 min
- P3 4:54CBJEgor Chinakhov: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Norris – Tkachuk11:19
xG 0.73–0.12 (86%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Joseph – Batherson – Stützle8:15
xG 0.10–0.00 (98%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Batherson – Stützle4:11
xG 0.17–0.11 (60%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Highmore – MacEwen – Kelly3:57
xG 0.01–0.20 (7%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Brannstrom2:11
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Brannstrom9:39
xG 0.46–0.30 (60%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Chabot – Chychrun2:06
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestKuraly – Olivier – Texier8:44
xG 0.28–0.09 (75%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Laine – Danforth – Fantilli9:34
xG 0.45–0.60 (43%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
- Marchenko – Voronkov – Chinakhov8:02
xG 0.25–0.42 (37%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Johnson11:29
xG 0.07–0.51 (12%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Bean14:00
xG 0.33–0.17 (65%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Gudbranson – Provorov2:14
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Provorov – Jiricek9:29
xG 0.34–0.71 (32%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).