Sat, Dec 2, 2023·Centre Bell, Montreal
Detroit Red Wings 5, Montréal Canadiens 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 311 | 19 | 010 | 13 | 533 |
| MTL | 17 | 18 | 215 | 00 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:21DETJoseph VelenoAssists: Lucas Raymond, Jake Walman · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 11:44DETChristian FischerSHAssists: Michael Rasmussen · Backhand, 0.35 xG2–0
- P1 19:20DETDaniel SprongAssists: Moritz Seider · Snap, 0.15 xG3–0
- P1 19:53MTLJustin BarronAssists: Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 4:07MTLJoel ArmiaSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P2 4:54DETAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Moritz Seider, Daniel Sprong · Snap, 0.15 xG4–2
- P3 4:12MTLNick SuzukiPPAssists: Mike Matheson · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 16:01MTLGustav LindstromAssists: Josh Anderson, Jake Evans · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–4
- OT 0:54DETJake WalmanGWGAssists: Dylan Larkin, Alex DeBrincat · Slap, 0.13 xG5–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:53DETDylan Larkin: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:47MTLJake Allen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:24DETChristian Fischer: Interference2 min
- P2 14:12DETRobby Fabbri: Elbowing2 min
- P2 15:11DETBen Chiarot: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:39MTLSean Monahan: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:11MTLJosh Anderson: Holding2 min
- P3 3:32DETAlex DeBrincat: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:40MTLMitchell Stephens: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Veleno won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCompher – DeBrincat – Rasmussen9:18
xG 0.66–0.20 (77%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Fischer – Sprong – Kostin4:30
xG 0.15–0.12 (55%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
- Larkin – Veleno – Raymond10:27
xG 0.55–0.54 (50%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Perron – Copp – Fabbri7:03
xG 0.11–0.50 (18%)attempts 2–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Chiarot16:22
xG 1.02–0.26 (80%)attempts 13–17goals 0–1
- Walman – Seider13:46
xG 1.12–0.60 (65%)attempts 21–16goals 1–1
- Holl – Gostisbehere11:16
xG 0.13–0.74 (15%)attempts 5–19goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Suzuki – Caufield3:25
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Armia – Stephens – Ylonen4:19
xG 0.13–0.10 (56%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Anderson – Monahan – Evans4:00
xG 0.19–0.17 (52%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Pearson – Evans – Slafkovský5:35
xG 0.38–0.40 (49%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Barron7:03
xG 0.28–0.10 (73%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Matheson – Lindstrom3:31
xG 0.14–0.15 (47%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Lindstrom – Struble7:17
xG 0.50–0.57 (47%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).