Sat, Dec 2, 2023·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Seattle Kraken 0, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 011 | 013 | 015 | 039 |
| OTT | 114 | 111 | 03 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:21OTTMathieu JosephGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.36 xG0–1
- P2 13:37OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Tim Stützle, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:21OTTJakob Chychrun: Interference2 min
- P1 14:55SEAMarián Studenic: Holding2 min
- P2 3:57SEAJustin Schultz: Interference2 min
- P2 9:45SEAEeli Tolvanen: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:35OTTBrady Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 11:59OTTDominik Kubalik: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Beniers
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – McCann – Beniers9:51
xG 0.57–0.17 (77%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen11:08
xG 0.62–0.30 (67%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Wennberg – Tanev – Kartye2:24
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Wennberg – Yamamoto – Kartye3:23
xG 0.02–0.03 (42%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Oleksiak – Borgen13:24
xG 0.44–0.50 (47%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Schultz – Dumoulin12:39
xG 0.55–0.62 (47%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Larsson – Dunn13:29
xG 0.48–0.64 (42%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Batherson – Stützle7:02
xG 0.73–0.29 (72%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Chartier – Joseph – Kelly2:56
xG 0.57–0.36 (62%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Giroux – Norris – Tkachuk10:36
xG 0.41–0.31 (57%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Kubalik – Chartier3:22
xG 0.02–0.04 (33%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrannstrom – Bernard-Docker5:18
xG 0.20–0.08 (73%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Chabot – Zub13:54
xG 0.90–0.80 (53%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
- Hamonic – Brannstrom4:03
xG 0.20–0.35 (36%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).