Sat, Dec 2, 2023·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 07 | 115 | 210 | 01 | 1 | 433 |
| PIT | 03 | 18 | 215 | 06 | 0 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 14:31PITKris LetangUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 16:47PHIOwen TippettAssists: Tyson Foerster · Backhand, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 1:50PITJake GuentzelAssists: Erik Karlsson, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P3 7:01PHIScott LaughtonSHAssists: Nick Seeler · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–2
- P3 13:52PHITyson FoersterPPAssists: Cam York, Sean Couturier · Snap, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 19:39PITJake GuentzelAssists: Bryan Rust, Evgeni Malkin · Backhand, 0.17 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. PHI Tyson Foerster stopped
- 2. PIT Jake Guentzel stopped
- 3. PHI Sean Couturier scored
- 4. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
- 5. PHI Travis Konecny stopped
- 6. PIT Bryan Rust stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:34PHIMorgan Frost: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:42PHICam York: Interference2 min
- P2 5:18PITRadim Zohorna: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:55PITDrew O'Connor: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:16PITBryan Rust: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:02PHINicolas Deslauriers: Boarding2 min
- P3 11:03PHIMarc Staal: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:10PITErik Karlsson: Interference2 min · PPG
- OT 4:00PHIJoel Farabee: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestTippett – Frost – Brink8:15
xG 0.61–0.08 (88%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Hathaway – Poehling4:49
xG 0.16–0.01 (92%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Couturier – Konecny – Foerster9:23
xG 0.23–0.22 (51%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Atkinson – Laughton – Farabee9:34
xG 0.15–0.31 (33%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – York13:45
xG 0.42–0.12 (78%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Seeler – Walker14:57
xG 0.50–0.37 (58%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- Staal – Ristolainen10:27
xG 0.36–0.38 (49%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Guentzel12:17
xG 0.69–0.35 (66%)attempts 17–5goals 2–1
- Hinostroza – Koppanen – Zohorna3:30
xG 0.01–0.11 (11%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Carter – Eller – Harkins7:43
xG 0.02–0.22 (9%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Malkin – Smith – O'Connor10:47
xG 0.08–0.60 (12%)attempts 5–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Graves8:51
xG 0.39–0.13 (76%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Shea2:32
xG 0.19–0.09 (68%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Pettersson11:20
xG 0.26–0.29 (47%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).