Sat, Dec 2, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Boston Bruins 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 17 | 110 | 19 | 111 | 437 |
| TOR | 010 | 114 | 211 | 05 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:44BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Brandon Carlo, Hampus Lindholm · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 7:31BOSKevin ShattenkirkAssists: David Pastrnak, Jake DeBrusk · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 12:06TORAuston MatthewsAssists: William Nylander, Matthew Knies · Snap, 0.25 xG2–1
- P3 2:11TORMax DomiAssists: Nick Robertson, Calle Jarnkrok · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 13:10BOSTrent FredericAssists: Derek Forbort, Morgan Geekie · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–2
- P3 19:54TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mitch Marner, John Tavares · Slap, 0.14 xG3–3
- OT 4:52BOSBrad MarchandGWGAssists: David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.27 xG4–3
Penalties (2)
- P1 6:50BOSCharlie McAvoy: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:03TORRyan Reaves: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Zacha
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestPastrnak – Zacha – DeBrusk13:54
xG 0.59–0.43 (58%)attempts 14–14goals 2–0
- Steen – Geekie – Lauko7:15
xG 0.14–0.20 (41%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Marchand – Coyle – Heinen11:15
xG 0.42–1.01 (29%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Frederic – Poitras7:24
xG 0.10–0.72 (12%)attempts 7–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Forbort7:30
xG 0.36–0.21 (63%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Shattenkirk – Grzelcyk2:49
xG 0.15–0.01 (91%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Lindholm – McAvoy4:07
xG 0.20–0.06 (76%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestNylander – Matthews – Knies13:34
xG 1.33–0.36 (79%)attempts 24–11goals 1–1
- Jarnkrok – Gregor – Kampf3:05
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Tavares – Bertuzzi – Marner14:19
xG 0.70–0.74 (49%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Reaves – Gregor – Kampf4:19
xG 0.01–0.10 (13%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimmins – Benoit10:59
xG 1.18–0.42 (74%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- McCabe – Timmins3:55
xG 0.33–0.02 (96%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- McCabe – Lagesson14:25
xG 0.60–0.37 (62%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).