Sat, Dec 2, 2023·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Washington Capitals 1, Vegas Golden Knights 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 05 | 04 | 113 | 122 |
| VGK | 110 | 118 | 28 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:53VGKJonathan MarchessaultPPAssists: Jack Eichel, Logan Thompson · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 7:56VGKJack EichelGWGAssists: Ben Hutton · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P3 0:49VGKMark StoneAssists: Jack Eichel, Ivan Barbashev · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–3
- P3 16:46WSHTom WilsonAssists: Dylan Strome, John Carlson · Slap, 0.26 xG1–3
- P3 18:03VGKJonathan MarchessaultENAssists: Paul Cotter, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.49 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:51WSHTom Wilson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:49WSHJohn Carlson: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:40WSHJohn Carlson: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:25WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:03VGKJonathan Marchessault: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:49WSHBeck Malenstyn: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:49VGKWilliam Carrier: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestMantha – Strome – Protas3:34
xG 0.46–0.13 (78%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Dowd – Milano – Lapierre2:48
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Dowd – Aube-Kubel – Malenstyn4:31
xG 0.22–0.10 (69%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Aube-Kubel – Malenstyn2:14
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Edmundson8:38
xG 0.49–0.17 (74%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Jensen – Fehérváry2:08
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Edmundson – van Riemsdyk3:01
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestCarrier – Kolesar – Roy10:46
xG 0.52–0.21 (71%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel9:28
xG 0.71–0.42 (63%)attempts 7–11goals 2–0
- Karlsson – Marchessault – Cotter10:14
xG 0.67–0.39 (63%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Stephenson – Amadio – Howden8:21
xG 0.24–0.40 (37%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHague – Whitecloud15:19
xG 1.03–0.39 (73%)attempts 18–16goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Hutton13:37
xG 0.85–0.63 (58%)attempts 11–14goals 2–0
- McNabb – Korczak16:18
xG 0.56–0.56 (50%)attempts 14–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).