Mon, Dec 4, 2023·Centre Bell, Montreal
Seattle Kraken 2, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 013 | 17 | 113 | 233 |
| MTL | 110 | 210 | 110 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:03MTLSean MonahanAssists: Josh Anderson, Jake Evans · Snap, 0.39 xG0–1
- P2 3:12MTLTanner PearsonAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Christian Dvorak · Snap, 0.36 xG0–2
- P2 6:58MTLSean MonahanPPGWGAssists: Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield · Snap, 0.18 xG0–3
- P2 14:05SEAJared McCannAssists: Vince Dunn, Adam Larsson · Snap, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 4:49SEAVince DunnPPAssists: Eeli Tolvanen, Matty Beniers · Slap, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 19:28MTLJosh AndersonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 8:15MTLMike Matheson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 6:00SEAAdam Larsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:15MTLMike Matheson: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestGourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen14:15
xG 0.69–0.32 (68%)attempts 31–7goals 0–0
- Wennberg – McCann – Tanev8:41
xG 0.34–0.12 (74%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Wennberg – McCann – Yamamoto2:06
xG 0.04–0.20 (16%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- McCormick – Bellemare – Yamamoto4:43
xG 0.01–0.48 (1%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Larsson – Dunn20:00
xG 0.84–1.11 (43%)attempts 25–15goals 1–0
- Schultz – Dumoulin11:53
xG 0.30–0.59 (34%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Oleksiak – Borgen12:46
xG 0.28–0.78 (26%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Pearson – Dvorak11:13
xG 1.25–0.19 (87%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský14:24
xG 0.88–0.35 (72%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Armia – Stephens – Ylonen7:03
xG 0.17–0.16 (51%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Anderson – Monahan – Evans13:54
xG 0.65–0.65 (50%)attempts 8–19goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKovacevic – Struble5:35
xG 0.98–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–0goals 1–0
- Matheson – Kovacevic9:09
xG 1.34–0.37 (78%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Lindstrom – Struble3:36
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).