Tue, Dec 5, 2023·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Minnesota Wild 5, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 113 | 312 | 14 | 529 |
| CGY | 05 | 110 | 115 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:26MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Matt Boldy · Wrist, 0.96 xG1–0
- P2 0:45MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Marco Rossi, Mats Zuccarello · Bat, 0.27 xG2–0
- P2 1:30MINMatt BoldyGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–0
- P2 6:51CGYMikael BacklundAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Rasmus Andersson · Deflected, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 13:58MINMatt BoldyPPAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Jared Spurgeon · Tip-in, 0.11 xG4–1
- P3 1:37CGYConnor ZaryAssists: Ilya Solovyov, Nazem Kadri · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 6:49MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 16:20MINBrock Faber: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:51CGYYegor Sharangovich: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:25CGYA.J. Greer: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:25MINMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:18CGYBlake Coleman: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:41CGYRasmus Andersson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:34MINJake Middleton: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 3:09MINMarcus Johansson: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:34MINMarco Rossi: Interference2 min
- P3 9:34CGYConnor Zary: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Rossi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy9:02
xG 0.57–0.24 (70%)attempts 13–8goals 2–0
- Hartman – Duhaime – Dewar8:59
xG 0.10–0.26 (28%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Maroon – Foligno – Gaudreau6:48
xG 0.11–0.30 (27%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Rossi14:04
xG 0.56–0.90 (38%)attempts 13–20goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Merrill9:08
xG 1.16–0.36 (76%)attempts 5–10goals 1–1
- Spurgeon – Middleton15:56
xG 0.97–0.72 (57%)attempts 19–17goals 3–0
- Brodin – Faber19:03
xG 0.36–0.66 (35%)attempts 15–21goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGreer – Ruzicka – Duehr7:21
xG 0.44–0.07 (86%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Huberdeau11:37
xG 0.49–0.23 (68%)attempts 18–10goals 1–1
- Lindholm – Mangiapane – Sharangovich10:39
xG 0.38–0.55 (41%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Kadri – Dube – Zary7:05
xG 0.18–1.07 (14%)attempts 5–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Andersson13:35
xG 0.67–0.44 (60%)attempts 19–13goals 1–1
- Hanifin – Andersson2:07
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Tanev – Hanifin15:07
xG 0.36–0.79 (31%)attempts 8–18goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).